When the 2024 season begins, the Diamondbacks will probably be trying to perform one thing they’ve solely achieved as soon as earlier than. Actually, they are going to be trying to perform two issues they’ve solely achieved as soon as earlier than. Of course, they are going to be trying to go one step additional than in 2023 and win the World Series. But they will even be trying to make the postseason in consecutive years for the second time in franchise historical past, and first since 2001-2002.
From 1999-2003, the Diamondbacks had been one of the crucial profitable groups in baseball. They posted a profitable file annually, simply the longest streak of profitable baseball in franchise historical past (the one different time that even two profitable seasons had been put collectively was 2017-2019.) They received 100 video games in 1999, and averaged almost 92 wins a 12 months. They had been so profitable that, regardless of shedding 97 video games in 1998, they ended the 2003 season 76 video games over .500 as a franchise, a really unbelievable run for an enlargement staff. Of course, all of it got here crashing down in 2004, as they misplaced a franchise file 111 video games. The normal narrative related to this collapse is that possession overspent to win within the first few years, leaving the franchise bankrupt and unable to maintain. This just isn’t false, however neither is it the entire story. Yes, the Diamondbacks had been unable to afford the free agent contracts that had lifted them to success within the first few years. However, the collapse was as a lot the fault of a catastrophic incapability to establish and develop position participant expertise because it was monetary, or of a failure to acknowledge after they had a expertise and retain it.
Both enlargement groups had been allowed to draft beginning in 1996, however each had been to draft on the backside of the spherical by way of 1998. Thus, the Diamondbacks held the thirtieth decide within the draft in 1996 and 1997. They would have additionally held that decide in 1998, however gave up their first two picks within the draft to signal Jay Bell (that signing definitely labored out) and Willie Blair (that one didn’t.) One factor that helped each the Diamondbacks and the Devil Rays was the violation of Rule 4E by a number of groups within the 1996 draft; that let out a number of gamers to signal with any staff. Notably, the Diamondbacks signed Travis Lee, who had been the second decide of the draft, by the Twins. They additionally signed John Patterson, who had been the fifth decide, by the Expos. These two signings, and the enlargement draft collection of Karim Garcia from the Dodgers, gave the Diamondbacks three gamers on Baseball America’s top-100 prospect record in 1998. Between the draft restrictions and lack of two picks, there had not been plenty of alternatives so as to add to the farm system, which was ranked twentieth out of 30 groups. However, the Diamondbacks held the fourth decide within the 1999 draft.
Things began to go south nicely earlier than the draft, although. In 1997, the Diamondbacks’ highest “affiliate” was the High-A High Desert Mavericks. After Travis Lee destroyed the California League for half the season, he was truly loaned to the AAA Tucson Toros (then a Brewers affiliate) to get him some motion in opposition to a better stage. In 1998, the Diamondbacks nonetheless had no AA affiliate. Thus, the choices for the gamers at High Desert in 1997 (who had received 83 video games) was both to repeat the extent or make the bounce to AAA, the place they might be competing for enjoying time with the gathering of AAAA gamers the Diamondbacks needed to spherical out their roster. A number of, notably Jason Conti, had been loaned to different organizations to play on the AA stage. Because the Diamondbacks had been trying to win from the start, there wasn’t plenty of house for young gamers to make a mark, not even in 1998. The 1998 season actually recognized two gamers as potential building blocks: Lee and Tony Batista.
But the 1998 season ought to have additionally supplied the primary indication of the issues to come back. For the Tucson Sidewinders completed 14th of 16 groups within the Pacific Coast League. Still, there was no AA staff, so a few of which may have been due to gamers taking part in above their stage.
The 1998-1999 offseason noticed motion the likes of which can by no means be seen once more. For the Diamondbacks acquired a number of key figures for his or her upcoming run. In addition to Randy Johnson, the Diamondbacks signed Greg Colbrunn, Todd Stottlemyre (key in 1999 however not in 2001), Erubiel Durazo, Steve Finley, and Byung-Hyun Kim. They traded for Luis Gonzalez. So far, so good.
From 1996-1998, the Diamondbacks had drafted the next position gamers who would finally attain the majors: Rob Ryan, Jason Conti, Junior Spivey, Jack Cust, Ron Calloway, Brian Gordon (who would solely attain the majors after changing to a pitcher), Alex Cintron, JD Closser, and Robby Hammock. Only Cust and Closser had been taken within the first 5 rounds of the draft. Apart from Cust, the very best choice that might handle constructive profession WAR as a position participant was Hammock, taken within the twenty third spherical, together with his profession whole of 0.6 bWAR. In these three drafts, essentially the most helpful position participant the Diamondbacks chosen was Spivey. However, they had been way more profitable on the pitching entrance. They had taken Brad Penny within the fifth spherical in 1996, and coming into 1999 he was a top-five prospect. They nonetheless had Patterson, now ranked #15. They had Nick Bierbrodt, who had been their first ever draft decide. While in the end, solely a type of pitchers would go on to have an ideal profession, it was simple in 1999 to say that that they had a strong future rotation. And that they had the fourth decide within the draft.
The first decide was Josh Hamilton, as was broadly anticipated. The second decide was Josh Beckett, who would have the perfect profession of any of the primary spherical picks. After the Tigers continued what was a 90s custom within the draft of reaching for catchers, the Diamondbacks chosen Corey Myers, a neighborhood product. This was thought of a attain on the time, even when it was a barely justifyable attain, in an effort to attraction to native followers. He additionally got here cheaper than the encompassing picks. Another issue that makes issues look somewhat higher for Diamondbacks followers was that the Twins chosen B.J. Garbe with the next decide, who by no means even reached AAA, and cost $750,000 greater than Myers. The Blue Jays might need additionally been thought of to be reaching after they chosen Alex Rios nineteenth, and signed him for below $1 million. Yet he would wind up being second solely to Hamilton amongst first spherical position gamers when it got here to worth.
The Diamondbacks additionally had a supplemental spherical decide, as compensation for shedding Devon White to the Dodgers in free company. They used this decide on Casey Diagle.
When the Diamondbacks picked, the second-most helpful first spherical decide (Barry Zito) was nonetheless on the board. For their supplemental decide, Brian Roberts, who would supply extra worth even then Hamilton, was nonetheless on the board. Both signed for considerably lower than the Diamondbacks spent on Myers and Daigle. Carl Crawford (52nd decide) and Brandon Phillips (57th decide) had been each gamers the Diamondbacks handed on twice who would go on to wonderful careers. The Diamondbacks went pitching once more within the second spherical, and drafted Jeremy Ward, who wouldn’t attain the majors. The signing of Greg Swindell cost the Diamondbacks their decide in a 3rd spherical that noticed Justin Morneau and Hank Blalock taken. In truth, the Diamondbacks wouldn’t get one other decide till the sixth spherical, after they chosen Justin Maureau (not Morneau) however did not signal him. When it was all mentioned and executed, the Diamondbacks had drafted 48 gamers. Five would attain the key leagues. Only two would supply constructive worth. Those two had been Lyle Overbay and Chris Capuano. Granted, drafting is, and at all times has been, considerably inexact. And whereas it’s good to think about that the 1999 Diamondbacks may have been the staff to draft Albert Pujols, each staff handed on him, a number of instances (simply as each staff would move on Yadier Molina a number of instances in 2000.)
To be honest, it wasn’t simply 1999. 1999 was the conclusion of a collection of poor drafts. Between 1999 and the 2 earlier drafts, simply 15 gamers had been chosen and signed who would finally make the majors. 1997 featured simply 4. By comparability, the 2009 draft, even with high decide Bobby Borchering by no means making it, featured 12 gamers who would signal and finally make the majors, even when not all of them had been with the Diamondbacks. To discover a worse draft, it’s a must to go all the way in which to 2012, when the Diamondbacks signed simply three gamers who would finally make the majors. By comparability, three of the gamers chosen within the 5 spherical COVID draft have already reached the majors.
But the 1999 Diamondbacks had an issue, and one which definitely appears acquainted to Diamondbacks followers. The bullpen was a big weak point. The first week of the season illustrated this completely. In the six video games performed, the Diamondbacks misplaced by walk-off 4 instances. Gregg Olson blew three saves. Despite the perfect offense in franchise historical past, the Diamondbacks had been narrowly in first place originally of June. Joe Garigiola Jr. started to look elsewhere. And he discovered a match in Toronto.
Tony Batista, after having an ideal 12 months in 1998, had gotten off to a disappointing begin. He had hit simply 5 home runs. However, trying extra carefully at his statistics, he was nonetheless clearly seeing the ball nicely. He had 16 walks in opposition to 17 strikeouts. But on June twelfth, Batista was packaged with John Frascatore in change for Dan Plesac. Plesac was half certainly one of stabilizing the bullpen, and he did nice. He wasn’t nice, however he was an enchancment. But Batista went on an absolute tear after being traded, hit 25 home runs over the rest of the season, and would develop into an All Star the next 12 months. (He would additionally make an All Star staff in 2002.) But the Diamondbacks weren’t executed. On July eighth they might make what would finally develop into one of many worst trades in franchise historical past: they traded Brad Penny, Vladimir Nunez, and Abraham Nunez to the Marlins for Matt Mantei. Ironically, Vladimir Nunez had been one of many higher bullpen choices, and would finally develop into the Marlins nearer in 2002. Meanwhile, Mantei was strong all through the rest of 1999, however accidents and ineffectiveness would plague him for the rest of his Diamondbacks tenure.
Meanwhile, down on the farm, the Sidewinders had been barely higher, however nonetheless a final place staff. Jason Conti had taken an apparent step again. Bierbrodt and Patterson had been lit up. The El Paso Diablos had been additionally in final place. High Desert? Third within the division and sixth within the league. South Bend? Third within the division and ninth within the league. The solely affiliate that managed a profitable file in 1999 was Rookie League Missoula. While success on the minor league stage doesn’t point out future success within the main leagues, failure to win at any stage ought to in all probability be an indictment of the expertise stage on the farm.
In 2002, with the bullpen nonetheless an space of weak point, the Diamondbacks packaged Jack Cust and JD Closser for Mike Myers.
In December of 2002, Luis Ayala and Javier Lopez had been each misplaced within the Rule 5 draft. The two would mix for almost three WAR out of the bullpen in Montreal and Denver, respectively. Lopez would go on to a wonderful profession as a LOOGY. To be honest, the 2003 Diamondbacks had the most effective bullpens within the league. But that they had the second-worst group of position gamers. The following 12 months, the bullpen can be the second-worst in baseball and the position gamers can be the worst.
Even now, in your entire historical past of the franchise, the Diamondbacks have drafted only one participant who went on to publish greater than 15 bWAR with the membership: Paul Goldschmidt. But the primary they ever drafted to be value even 10 bWAR with the membership was Stephen Drew, in 2004. Meanwhile, the record of gamers they handed on who went on to nice careers is much longer than the names talked about above. Another notable who has an outdoor probability on the Hall of Fame is Jimmy Rollins. By 2004, he was a 5 WAR participant and a two-time All Star. In 2004, Lyle Overbay was main the league in doubles. A 2004 Diamondbacks staff with Rollins, Roberts, Overbay, Capuano, Penny, Zito, Lopez, and Ayala doesn’t lose 111 video games. It’s a legit contender (and Randy Johnson will get the Cy Young he deserved.) The full story of 2004 has to incorporate the failure to establish and develop position participant expertise, and the failure to retain gamers who would have been key items within the title of minimal positive factors.
Yes, hindsight is 20/20. But, till now, the fault for the 2004 collapse has been placed on money, when the fact is that there was additionally an organizational failure to establish and develop position participant expertise that was principally common below the Colangelo possession and Garigiola entrance workplace. When they did have a helpful position participant, he was usually traded away looking for short-term enchancment. Average and energy had been emphasised over on-base proportion, which led to one of many worst hitters within the league at getting on base batting leadoff.
What does this imply? It signifies that chasing a bullpen enchancment isn’t value buying and selling away high gamers, and definitely not top-five prospects. Bullpen enhancements can come from gamers which might be deep on the roster. It signifies that, even when Ken Kendrick is keen to spend money this offseason, it’s nonetheless crucial to establish and develop expertise. Hazen’s position participant draft file is superb; he has struggled to this point growing pitching, however we could also be lastly beginning to see that flip the nook.
The story of 1999 stays the story of nice on-field success. But on the similar time, 1999 completed laying the inspiration of the 2004 staff. As we bask within the success of 2023 and hope for additional success in 2024, it is very important do not forget that the choices made involving gamers at present within the minor leagues can have huge implications for 2028 and past.
Also, because of this it is very important tune into the minor leagues. You’re seeing the preview of what the Diamondbacks will appear to be in 3-5 years, for good or sick.
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