Oh Mt. 500! How… mediocre it’s, I assume. I wouldn’t say that it is a disappointing begin to the yr, however the truth that we now have solely received one collection in opposition to a group not from Colorado is lower than superb. The largest comfort is that a kind of groups is simply enjoying within the common season as a result of they need to earlier than being given the NL East title, and the opposite group is the Yankees, who aren’t a lot much less of a certain factor. The group from Arizona took care of business in opposition to the Cardinals, sending them to final place of their division.
We now face the group in second to final within the NL Central, however that claims extra about how aggressive that division at the moment is, quite than the standard of group we be dealing with within the Cubs. Right now, 4 out of 5 NL Central groups would make the playoffs, the Cubs being one in all them. Early days in fact, but it surely’s not getting simpler.
Game 1 — 4/15, 6:40PM: Merrill Kelly (2-0, 2.29 ERA/193 ERA+, 0.91 WHIP) vs. Ben Brown (0-0, 6.10 ERA/75 ERA+, 1.45 WHIP)
If you had informed me that three video games in, Kelly would haven’t pitched lower than six innings in a single begin, not given up greater than two runs, and gave up a single home run in every of his first two video games, however managed to keep away from one throughout his begin IN Colorado, I’d have mentioned… yeah most of that tracks besides the home run half. No home runs in Denver is bizarre. It’s just about business as normal for Merrill the Mainstay to date. The strike outs are decrease than regular, and he’s out performing his FIP by just a little over a run, so there are some indicators that regression might be coming, however nothing to be too nervous about.
After becoming a member of the Cubs organization in a commerce from the Phillies final yr, Ben Brown joined the rotation out of Spring Training this yr. His first begin was tough. He solely managed to pitch 1.2 innings of six run baseball in opposition to the Rangers, however has since settled in properly. He held the Rockies to at least one run and shut out the Padres, over 4 and 4.2 innings respectively. Not lengthy sufficient to get a call, however the Cubs did win each video games. One factor for the Diamondbacks to be careful for is the Okay. Even together with his tough first begin, he has a SO9 of 9.6.
Game 2 — 4/16, 6:40 PM: Tommy Henry (0-1, 5.79 ERA/77 ERA+, 1.64 WHIP) vs. Kyle Hendricks (0-2, 12.08 ERA/38 ERA+, 2.36 WHIP)
Much like Brown, Henry’s numbers are being inflated by a nasty first begin, however he’s settled in since then. That first begin was in opposition to Colorado, and getting lit up by them isn’t a fantastic look, however he held the Braves to simply two runs over 5 innings. One of the massive issues holding him again proper now are walks. A BB9 of 4.5 just isn’t going to win you a lot video games, or fifth starter competitions both. Neither will 1.9 HR9…
Wow, these are some very un-Kyle Hendricks numbers there. Hendricks had a few dangerous seasons in ‘21 and ‘22, due at least in part to injuries, but he bounced back in 2023 to the tune of a 123 ERA+. This year, not so much. He’s been torched by the Rangers, Dodgers, and Padres for 5, 5, and 7 runs every. He’s given up 5 home runs in these video games, and is giving up 18.5 hits per 9, greater than double his regular charge. Either he’s due for a bounce again, or he’s due for a go to to whoever took over Dr. James Andrew’s apply.
Game 3 — 4/17, 12:40: Brandon Pfaadt (1-0, 6.48 ERA/69 ERA+, 1.38 WHIP) vs. Jordan Wicks (0-2, 5.68 ERA/80 ERA+, 1.89 WHIP)
When you see the pitchers which might be following Kelly and Gallen within the rotation, it turns into much less of a query of why are they solely .500 and extra how are they managing to be .500. That later sentiment turns into even stronger whenever you bear in mind they’re incapable of scoring a run after the fifth inning. Anyway, Brandon Pfaadt just isn’t wanting like a pitcher who was assured the fourth spot within the rotation going into Spring Training. The lengthy ball is again for him, and so are nearly another sort of runs. Atlanta received him for 5, St. Louis received him for six, and abruptly, the query of who E-Rod will substitute within the rotation is a bit murkier.
Wicks solely made it into the primary inning as soon as in his first three begins, however that and his excessive ERA doesn’t inform the whole story of his begins. His FIP is at the moment 3.3 runs decrease than his ERA, largely because of the Cubs committing three errors within the first three video games behind him. Two of these errors main to 3 unearned runs. It’s laborious to pitch deep or successfully into video games when your group is struggling that a lot behind you and freely giving further outs. However, he did surrender 4 runs in 4 innings in his third begin, and the Cubs dedicated no errors behind him, so time will inform.
Conclusion
The Cubs have been having higher outcomes than the Diamondbacks to date. I additionally suppose the Diamondbacks have a greater shot at successful this collection. Kelly vs. Brown looks as if a slam dunk to me. Henry pitched decently in two of his begins, whereas Kendrick is… not. I believe these peripherals of Wick’s will catch as much as him and put him forward of Pfaadt. Two out of three, with a probability at a sweep if Jordan Wicks pitches to his ERA as a substitute of FIP.
