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Ian Large, the man from Leger, is on the phone. He’s got numbers.
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The first numbers I want to hear about are from Calgary, battleground Calgary, the city where the UCP under former premier Jason Kenney cleaned up, winning all but three seats in the last ballot battle.
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In parts of the city, you could run someone’s pet hamster for the UCP and Harry the Hamster would win.
Well, in Calgary, the NDP is leading Premier Danielle Smith’s UCP by 10 points. 51% to 41%.
More importantly, much more importantly, Large tells me when Leger went out in the field soon after Smith won the UCP leadership race the gap between the NDP and the UCP in Calgary was 3 points in the opposition’s favour, 44% to 41%.
For Smith, the numbers are going in the wrong direction, by seven points. This is with Kenney gone!
And this poll asked Albertans how they felt AFTER Smith had rolled out her affordability plan, giving households with kids $600 for every child, as long as the family wasn’t bringing in $180,000 or more a year.
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And this poll was BEFORE we saw the devil in the details of the sovereignty act, Smith’s blueprint to go after Ottawa when her and her party’s members of the legislature figure the feds are doing something against the constitution or harmful to Albertans.
You want the poll results on the sovereignty act. Talk about a Shocker on Shock Street.
A little less than a third, 32%, think the sovereignty act is necessary to stand up for Alberta against Ottawa.
In Calgary only 29% are thinking Smith’s plan is needed.
Yikes.
Even in the rest of the province, outside the Calgary and Edmonton area, only 39% believe the sovereignty act is necessary.
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And that’s before all of the heat of this week’s debate, grabbing national headlines.
Just while we’re on the numbers.
Six in ten Calgarians — 61% to be exact — think Smith’s affordability plan is just an attempt by the premier to buy votes before the May election.
Is there such a thing as double Yikes?
The nose-counter says Smith isn’t winning hearts and minds in the way she should be.
Take the sovereignty act.
The pollster says Smith’s number one pitch is “not a hill to die on.”
“Albertans don’t get it. They don’t get why we need it. They don’t understand what it’s going to do for them.”
Numbers, more numbers.
Who would make the best premier for the province?
In Alberta as a whole, NDP leader Rachel Notley is 12 points ahead of Smith with about a quarter of those saying they don’t know.
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In Calgary, Notley is 17 points ahead of Smith on the question of who would be the best premier, 40% to 23%.
As for the horse race across Alberta, it’s the NDP with 47% of decided voters and the UCP with 44%, still 11 points lower for the UCP than what Kenney achieved in the last election.
Let it be noted. As the Leger nose-counter points out, Smith is very much in winning territory.
Looking for more silver linings, Smith is steamrolling in areas beyond the Edmonton area and the Calgary area.
In the rest of Alberta, the UCP have a lead of 27 points, 59% to 32%, a number that’s grown over the last several weeks.
Oddly, in the rest of Alberta where the UCP has their best arithmetic, Smith only has a 7-point lead over Notley on the best premier question, with more than a quarter not knowing.
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Remember this poll was done AFTER we find out record-breaking riches from the oilpatch are flowing into the province’s treasury.
And the poll is coming out AFTER Smith got rid of Dr. Deena Hinshaw and the Alberta Health Services board and promised shorter times for surgeries, in emergency rooms and for ambulances.
I expect, if tweets and emails are any judge, some Smith supporters will diss this nose-count as further evidence of a conspiracy against them, a nasty attempt at sabotage.
After all, suggesting ways Smith could improve her standing with more Albertans is considered by some to be a high crime and misdemeanour.
Of course, this poll could be seen as a reality check, if a person were actually interested in reality.
Final question for pollster Large. How should Premier Smith feel about the poll?
He says Smith should feel badly.
“Except for affordability, the rest of the things on the top of minds for people are not the same things as the government seems to be pursuing.”
“She’s hitched her horses to the wrong wagon.”
