Will Christian Walker away? – AZ Snake Pit

The Paul Goldschmidt commerce

I’ve been considerably obsessive about the Paul Goldschmidt commerce ever since I used to be stunned to see that Goldy is already coming into his sixth 12 months as a Cardinal. That brings him scary near his 8 years in Sedona Red and along with his street to the Hall of Fame, I get an increasing number of anxious that he’ll enter Cooperstown with a St. Louis Cardinal on his head.

I learn an article that was printed final 12 months on si.com in regards to the Paul Goldschmidt commerce. I absolutely disagree with the content material of it:

Four years later, the commerce hasn’t aged significantly nicely for the Diamondbacks.

The Diamondbacks have been going to lose Paul Goldschmidt on the finish of the 2019 season to free company. At that very second, the Diamondbacks weren’t going to supply a 9 digit contract to a participant who was coming into his 30s and can be enjoying on a workforce that was years away of changing into a contender. A commerce was the absolute best answer at that second and the haul was fairly good at that second, at the least that was my opinion. The return we obtained won’t have yielded the outcomes we had hoped for, however not one participant has been an actual deception and so they all have contributed to some extent on the sector and we are able to nonetheless be enthusiastic about what the longer term for some will deliver, however Spencer will prolong on this in a follow-up article that will probably be printed proper after this one.

What is usually neglected when revisiting this commerce is that the Diamondbacks may need trusted in buying and selling away Paul Goldschmidt, as a result of they’d religion of their first base choices. Once redeemed, that possibility turned Christian Walker.

Goldschmidt went to St. Louis and continued to supply there and gained the MVP award in 2022 he by no means obtained in Arizona in 2013. When in comparison with Walker, there isn’t any comparability: Goldschmidt has been the higher participant offensively these previous 6 years, though defensively Walker has undoubtedly stood his floor, and at an age nicely previous his prime. The presence of Walker at first allowed the Diamondbacks to deal with different areas, however I’ll go away that data to Spencer and his article.

A hitting nerd

We all know the story of Christian Walker earlier than he seized first base in 2019 in Arizona. Blocked by Chris Davis in Baltimore, on the waiver wire a few instances after which blocked in Arizona by Paul Goldschmidt. But he made the very best of it in 2017, with good pinch hitting appearances, however in 2018 was hit by accidents. He wasn’t prepared but for a much bigger function within the majors in these years, but it surely was boiling up although.

Walker; “I spent a lot of time in the headspace of ‘just keep working and eventually you’re going to get your shot, and when you do, you’ve got to make it count.’ I was knocking on the door, knocking on the door, scratching and clawing, and then, all of a sudden, Goldie got traded and there were some at-bats on the table.”

Laurila: Looking again objectively, have been you prepared a number of years earlier, or did you continue to want extra improvement?

Walker; “I don’t think I would have been ready. I think I could have survived, but as far as being a dominant, aggressive, dangerous hitter in a lineup every day… no. I don’t think I was ready.”

– From an interview with David Laurila on Fangraphs, March 2023

Still, we’d neglect that Christian Walker didn’t instantly get the primary base job in 2019. It was Jake Lamb who obtained the primary shot, however Lamb injured his quad early April and can be out for a number of months. Walker seized his alternative, popped 29 homers and struck the ball with fury in his at bats. Lamb by no means obtained wholesome once more and Walker turned the king of the chilly nook.

In 2021, although, Walker encountered his first struggles as a serious league participant. Pitchers adjusted to him and used the simple trick of fastball up and in. It was a tough time for Walker, however being the exhausting employee he’s, he too adjusted and have become a way more affected person hitter. FanGraphs has a superb article on that with all of the ins and outs you would possibly wish to know. Not solely did Christian turn into a greater hitter, he additionally turned a greater defender on the identical time, main the league in outs above common, and top-of-the-line in defensive runs saved, which has earned him 2 Golden Gloves the previous two seasons.

Now, the primary baseman will enter his remaining 12 months as a Diamondback earlier than coming into free company. Christian will probably be 34 as soon as the 2025 season begins.

How will the market deal with Christian?

It would possibly turn into one of many extra attention-grabbing free company courses for first basemen as Walker will be a part of a market with the exact same Paul Goldschmidt, but additionally Pete Alonso. If that isn’t sufficient, and pending their and Christian’s efficiency this 12 months, different attention-grabbing first basemen are Josh Bell (coming into age 33 subsequent 12 months), Mark Canha (36) and Anthony Rizzo (36), if the Yankees don’t carry their membership possibility (which might be a no brainer). Rhys Hoskins is likely to be an enormous fish within the pond after a robust rebound 12 months in Milwaukee.

Trying to foretell a market is as silly as economists making an attempt to foretell what the world financial system will look the subsequent 12 months or inside a decade, however I’ll moist my ft anyhow. Rizzo obtained a 2 12 months $32MM contract 4 years in the past, Josh Bell obtained 2 years and $33MM 3 years in the past, whereas Mark Canha obtained 2 years and $26.5MM 3 years in the past. Rizzo has signed a brand new contract since then, whereas each Bell and Canha had participant choices for an additional season they exercised. All these contracts seem to be affordable references for a contract Christian Walker would possibly count on. Christian is incomes almost $11MM this 12 months, so on first hand you’d say that 2 years and $25MM to $30MM is an affordable quantity, particularly if he has one other stable season offensively, someplace round 115 OPS+, with good defence.

But do Christian and his agent really feel the identical? Who is his agent? MLBTR lists Martini Sports Management as his company and this one man Pennsylvania primarily based participant company doesn’t characterize many MLB gamers. Former Giant Derek Holland is listed as a consumer, however all others don’t ring a bell to me. By far is Christian Walker their most coveted free agent. So, primarily based on the company’s historical past…we don’t know what to say, however it’s a good factor (for each the Diamondbacks and Christian himself) that it isn’t Scott Boras.

What groups could possibly be in search of a participant like Christian Walker?

We can take away the groups which have just about a participant settled at first base, whether or not they wish to or not: Dodgers, Braves, Astros, Reds, Twins, Tigers, Rangers, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Rockies.

Then you might have groups that gained’t be turning their eyes to a much bigger funding given the state they’re in: Nationals, Pirates, White Sox, Royals, Athletics, Guardians.

There are additionally some groups that would use an upgrade over their present first baseman however in all probability will stick with what they’ve and search for an upgrade some place else: Giants, Padres, Orioles, Cubs, Mariners. I may think about a type of groups to come back up as a suitor for Pete Alonso, for instance the Giants or Cubs.

That leaves:

Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies is talked about right here for nothing greater than due to emotional causes. Walker is from the world and was a Phillies fan in his youth, with a lot of his buddies nonetheless being staunch Phillies followers. The Phillies may theoretically transfer Bryce Harper again to the outfield if Bryce is okay with that. That looks like a daring transfer for signing somebody like Christian Walker. But you by no means know, though it’s extra seemingly that they attempt to get Pete Alonso.

New York Mets. The Mets will lose Pete Alonso to free company and though the workforce gained’t be a contender any time quickly, Steve Cohen shouldn’t be alien to the free company market and will search for a few years of a stable or bounceback first baseman within the classes of Rizzo and Walker.

St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals will see Paul Goldschmidt depart to free company. They are principally retooling a bit right here and there so I wouldn’t be stunned to see them work out an extension with Goldy.

New York Yankees. The Yankees may pursue Pete Alonso, however then once more, the Yankees are speculated to make a run for each large identify free agent. Anthony Rizzo will go away the Bronx except the Yankees will carry their possibility. My guess is that they are going to let him go and possibly resign him for much less if they can not discover something higher.

Los Angeles Angels. The Angels ought to attempt to signal each attainable upgrade over what they’ve proper now on the sector. Christian Walker could possibly be an ideal and dependable signing for them.

Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers are in all probability the least logical vacation spot for Christian Walker, however you by no means know. They will see Rhys Hoskins go away and shouldn’t have a reputable back-up for him, however neither is the workforce in a position to contend though you by no means know within the NL East.

Miami Marlins. Bell hasn’t been of a lot worth for Miami and the Marlins are on their technique to an nameless 2024, however must be in search of a brand new first baseman in 2025. With the Marlins it’s exhausting to foretell what they are going to do, however Christian Walker in Florida doesn’t sound loopy.

And then you might have the Diamondbacks, who you’d count on to be one of many suitors and possibly they’ll work out an extension even earlier than Christian hits the free company market. That might be the very best case situation for each the Diamondbacks and Christian Walker. The D-Backs shouldn’t have any credible different at the moment for Walker and doubtless don’t want to pay an excessive amount of for gamers who won’t be actual upgrades over Christian Walker. And let’s be sincere, $25MM to $30MM sounds affordable, proper?

But who is aware of what’s going to occur? Do you?