SnakePit Round Table: Arrivals and Departures. And Penguins

Jordan Montgomery finally got here. What are your expectations?

Justin: I think he will do fine. I have more faith in him than I do ERod after DBE’s article. I do think he is likely only here for this one year regardless if his option vests. (Someone can correct me, but I think he still has an opt out even if it vests)

Makakilo: After one game started, I’m enthusiastically happy. I have two expectations:

First, pitch consistently well during the regular season:

• This season, pitch 22 quality starts. (He reached 9 in 2021, 14 in 2022, and 22 in 2023.)
• This season, pitch 150 innings. (He reached 157.1 in 2021, 178.1 in 2022, and 188.2 in 2023)
• This season, have less than 16% of his game scores less than 40 and have more than 40% of his game scores exceed 60 (which he accomplished in 2023).

Second, pitch well in the playoffs.

ISH95: I’m not sure I’m expecting anything specific, but in general, I’m expecting the rotation to be stabilized, allowing the other issues (the bullpen and, yes, the offense late and close) to be less impactful thanks to 5-7 more strong innings from a starter.

Edit: well crap.

Spencer: I’m with ISH95 here. He’s not quite an ace in my mind so I’m just looking for a stabilizing force.

Ben: Yeah, I’m with Makakilo, it’s hard to perform much better than he did in his first start, but I don’t think that should necessarily be our expectation from him moving forward. We’re fortunate in that he doesn’t need to be the staff ace or even the #2 in the rotation. Although the news about Merrill Kelly this morning affects that positioning slightly, my bigger hope is that it takes some pressure off Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson/Tommy Henry at the backend of the rotation. If he can stay healthy and be a middle of the rotation starter who eats up innings, the front office and team should be thrilled for his price tag.

Jim: Well, with this morning’s concerning news about Merrill Kelly, it feels more like a net balance than much of an improvement. Not Jordan’s fault of course, and Friday’s game certainly appeared to show that we got the better free-agent pitcher than the Giants. But right now, I wonder how long before we actually see our intended #1-4 starting pitchers in the rotation together?

Steven: I think he’s learned over the last couple of years how to pitch and pitch effectively. In his start he just pounded the zone, and once Perdomo and Thomas return and the defense solidifies he’ll push for CY Young contention. He was every bit as advertised and more. The only real question is whether he’ll survive the year with the team if these injuries continue to compound.

Jeffern51: My expectations are for him to stabilize the rotation and provide a shot in the arm to this team.

The Jace Peterson era is over. How do you feel?

Justin: Elated.

Makakilo: I thought, “improvement by subtraction.” Every improvement feeds my optimism that the team will reach the playoffs and reach the World Series.

This season his performance was poor:

• OPS+: negative 40.
• Defense, DRS: zero at 2B and 3B, negative 3 at shortstop
• Defense, OAA: zero at 3B, negative 1 at 2B, negative 1 at shortstop
• Value Above replacement: negative 0.5 bWAR one month into the season.

ISH95: Felt really good for about two minutes, and then moved on, which was frankly about 20 seconds of thought more than the situation deserve

Spencer: Jace Peterson wasn’t stopping this team from winning. So while I’m glad his production won’t be on my screen anymore, it doesn’t really fix any of the team’s problems and actually thinned out the MLB depth issue since he was replaced with a corner IF/OF bat… Unless Walker or Pavin can play SS we now get either Blaze’s extremely poor defense and hot bat or Newman’s quality defense and anemic bat. Man I miss Perdomo and Ahmed…

Jim: Part of me is amused at fandom’s incandescent, borderline nuclear rage over a player who was averaging barely one PA per game. And I’m sure Kevin Newman with his 28 OPS+ appreciated the distraction. But I enjoy all manner of record-setting performances – good or bad – and so was appreciating the death watch. Trading for him always felt a dumb move to begin with, Peterson being a career 81 OPS+ hitter even before this year, and not worth more than league minimum. I appreciate Mike Hazen’s willingness to cut bait on bad players. I’d appreciate even more Mike Hazen not taking them on.

Ben: It was a big ol’ shrug from me honestly. It isn’t like he was blocking a prospect or even really taking playing time away from someone I’d rather see, but he clearly wasn’t contributing the way Hazen and Co were hoping either. Honestly, I’m still a little mystified why they traded for him initially, but his tenure was quick, annoying, and undistinguished. But I’m with Jim – it’s almost amusing to see the disconnect in the fandom’s anger against someone who likely won’t play a large part in the team’s success. Here’s hoping Chad Patrick doesn’t turn into a productive starter or the rage might actually become more understandable.

Steven: He never should’ve been acquired in the first place. He was bad for the A’s in a regular role and expecting him to improve in a limited-bench one didn’t make much sense either. I think Hazen got presented with a buy-low option to see if he could turn it around but he fell off a cliff. That aging curve comes for us all and Jace being off this roster was a long time coming. I don’t fault Torey for placing trust in his players, but it made no sense to play him over Blaze with how he’s started this season, errors withstanding.

Jeffern51: Ecstatic! Never understood why he was ever here. He has never demonstrated an ability to hit and he was blocking young guys like Blaze from getting opportunity.

Heroes – beyond Ketel Marte! – and villains of the week?

Justin: For one of the heroes, I would like to nominate Allen coming in for Nelson. Already taxed bullpen, he comes in newly called up and gives up 3 hits in 4.2ip. It was just one appearance, and we still lost, but that was positive.

One of the villains would be Suarez. In my Snake Bytes on Thursday, I quoted him ““[Accountability] for me is very important,” Suárez said after the D-backs’ 5-3 loss to the Cubs on Wednesday afternoon at Chase Field. “You have to make those plays, you got to help the pitching — they work hard and expect the defense to help them. Today, I didn’t help my teammates.””

Hat tip to sirbradford for putting into writing what I was feeling reading that, “Suarez’s quote about accountability makes me love him even more. He’s a great lineup-lengthener, but I think his true value is a culture-setter for this young club. It’s nice to see.”

Makakilo: This week (4/13-4/19) had three heroes who hit significantly better than their ZiPS projections (honorable mention to Jordan Montgomery for an awesome Diamondbacks debut):

• Blaze Alexander was a hero for a second week in a row! (ZiPS .297 OBP and .343 SLG, 6-12 April actual .350 OBP and .444 SLG, 13-19 April actual .438 OBP and .800 SLG).
• Randal Grichuk turned his performance around from a tie for villain last week to being a hero this week! (ZiPS .290 OBP and .404 SLG, 13-19 April actual .469 OBP and .774 SLG).
• And of course, Ketel Marte. (ZiPS .353 OBP and .473 SLG, 13-19 April actual .438 OBP and .800 SLG).

This week, there were four players contending for villain of the week (including Eugenio Suarez who Justin mentioned), but my view is Jace Peterson won. After last week’s tie for villain (no crown awarded), this week Jace Peterson leaves the Diamondbacks with a crown in his suitcase.

ISH95: Lets talk about Montgomery and Cecconi making their 2024 debuts against the Giants and giving the Dbacks exactly what they needed. Great to see for different reasons. We’ve been counting on Montgomery to boost the rotation, and then you have Cecconi making an emergency trip from Reno to cover for the injured Kelly. Just great. Villain, Jace Peterson, just for old time’s sake.

Jim: Difficult to complain about Blaze Alexander, though his numbers are certainly inflated dramatically by his .412 BABIP. [On line-drives, going into Sunday’s game it’s 1.000. Literally, every line drive by Alexander has become a hit] That’s going to cool off, but hey – go for it. The two-headed DH beast of Randal Grichuk and Joc Pederson have both had OPSs north of .900 this week, so that seems to be working as intended. Shout-out to Brandon Pfaadt, who gave the team seven strong innings when the bullpen needed him. On the villain side, the ongoing absence of Corbin Carroll is of increasing concern, and I miss All-Star Joe Mantiply.

Ben: My hero nomination: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. His slugging percentage (.518) is the biggest reason he’s having his best start by OPS in his career and it’s been a huge boost to have his power in the lineup while Corbin and Christian continue to figure out their early season struggles – especially on the power side. As for villains, there are a few easy candidates, but I’ll go with the continuing slump from Eugenio Suarez. Even including the ridiculous 17-1 drubbing when seemingly everyone was hitting, he had a pitiful slash line of .130/.276/.130. I doubt that level of ineffectuality will continue, but he will need to step up for this team to stay in contention.

Steven: Both Logan Allen and Slade Cecconi pitching with limited notice like they did were massive performances for a team struggling to fill innings. Slade had a no-hitter through 4, finished with 2 runs allowed because of a bloop and blast but completed 6 innings, and Allen came on for injury relief of Ryne Nelson and just ate almost 5 innings, keeping the team in the game. That’s really all you can ask for out of your guys. Hitter-wise I’ll echo Blaze Alexander. It was just a superb week batting, with an opposite field grand slam culminating his efforts.

Jeffern51: Heroes: Blaze Alexander for all the reasons already mentioned. He has been a much needed source of offense. If he can continue what he is doing from an offensive perspective, the Dbacks have a legitimate shot at another ROY. Villain for me has been Corbin Carroll. He absolutely needs to step up. For me he just needs to key in on better pitches. His ability to make contact is really almost a detriment when he is swinging at pitches he cant do damage on. Also he needs to start taking control in the OF. Many narrow misses with collisions and we cant have any more injuries.

Jack ordered his D-backs concerns:

Do you agree?

Makakilo: Looking at his concerns, I’m thinking about separating them into concerns that are likely temporary, concerns that I’m confident that the Diamondbacks will address during the season and by the trade deadline, and concerns that could make reaching the postseason an uncertain outcome.

Injuries are my biggest concern (and Jack’s) so we agree on that much. Playing time by alternate players contributed to some of the other concerns, but my view is the team will emerge stronger. When the team is back at full strength, they will be playoff worthy.

ISH95: Generally, though as people who follow me on Twitter and read some of my comments here, I’m a lot less worried about the late and close offense than most. As long as the team is still scoring more runs than any other team, I’m not particularly worried about when they’re scoring them. Other than that. I generally agree with the list.

Jim: They’re all legitimate issues, but the order is largely subjective. I think the bullpen and late-inning offense will sort themselves out, both regressing towards more normal performance. After the Kelly news, hard to argue that injuries have been the biggest issue. If you’d given me a list of our April IL, and told me we’d be 1.5 games back of the division lead going into today’s game, I wouldn’t have believed you. Though that’s mostly on the division being surprisingly weak.

Ben: I think they’re mostly fair. His top concern about key injuries suddenly becomes that much more prescient after Kelly’s injury announcement today. I know we’re still missing Alek Thomas and Geraldo Perdomo, but Jake McCarthy has stepped up ably in the former’s stead while Blaze Alexander has, in my opinion, surpassed the latter to this point. Injuries will always be part of the game, but so far the team has been able to weather them admirably. Of the remainder, my emotional lizard brain sees the numbers and body language from Corbin and is concerned, but the logical side makes me think that it’s temporary and will regress back to his mean. And once it does, this team will take a gigantic leap forward in my opinion. At the same time, the D-Backs are in the thick of the Wild Card and Divisional races so who knows which of these concerns are worthy of stress?

Steven: I’d go bullpen first as the injuries don’t look to be season-long ones that just ruin all your plans. The bullpen has just looked dreadful when the lights are brightest. We’ll see if it solidifies when Sewald returns, but I’m still not sure. They’re at the top of the league in IP while also being among the bottom-four in K/9. BABIP will come for us all.

Jeffern51: My biggest concern is that this team is really playing like a team that is struggling with expectations. Its almost like Torey saw it coming in spring training when he refused to use the word. Put simply, when momentum is on their side, they have a big lead, or are playing the Rockies they look great. When these guys are free and easy and dont have the weight of expectations look out! When they are playing a tough team or when they are looking for a big hit or need a shut down inning from the pitching they choke.

Our Arizona sports siblings the Coyotes are gone. Are there lessons to be learned for the D-backs.

Justin: I have full intention of continuing to follow them in Utah. That is all I have to say.

ISH95: I see a few things:

1. They can’t count on public funding, or even public support for a new stadium or renovations. The Tempe plan would not have required public funding beyond clean up of a landfill that has to happen anyway, but it got voted down because of the perception of public funding, as well as a significant number of people just not wanting it in their city.
2. If AZ won’t support them, someone else will. I think that we’re seeing right now across the country is extremes of both positions. Towns that have sports teams are strongly opposed to giving them more than they already have, but teams that don’t have them are seemingly more willing to pony up to get one. See Vegas, SLC, and other cities that are wanting expansion teams. I think the Dbacks realize this based off the vaguely threatening statement that Hall posted on Twitter when it was announced.
3. Negative public perception of the ownership responsible for the team leaving won’t last long. The owner of the Coyotes is already going through something of a positive reevaluation from some on social media as they are viewing him as their hope for the Coyotes returning, rather than holding him accountable as the real reason they left in the first place. I’m sure Kendrick is taking notes… just in case.

Makakilo: What surprised me is that the players and coaches moved (were sold), but the owner keeps (for five years) the Coyotes name and the right to reactivate the team (when he obtains a new arena that meets NHL standards). If the new arena is in Phoenix, he could say his team rose from the ashes like the mythical Phoenix bird. One lesson is that a good choice often leaves hope for new possibilities in the future.

Jim: Maybe any expansion team should be named the Phoenix Phoenixes. 🙂 This was, in general, a cluster of epic proportions. Ownership, Glendale council, Tempe voters: all played their part in running the team out of town. I certainly hope the D-backs do not exhibit the same level of stupidity, but never say never. Unlike Justin, if the team moves, that would be it for me.

Ben: Despite not living in the area, I suspect the Coyotes’ departure increases the amount of leverage the D-Backs have with the city and fanbase for any concessions they might want (pun intended). While I haven’t been to Chase in a few years, it was obvious even then that there were some needed renovations around the stadium – especially on the displays and seating in my opinion. I think it ultimately depends on what the franchise actually wants from the negotiations.

I agree with ISH, there is a weird dynamic happening now where cities and their populace with existing franchises are reluctant to give them as much public money as they might have in the past while others are bending over backward to attract new ones. You can even see that dynamic playing out in the Kansas City area which rejected tax proposals that would have provided funds for stadium renovations to Kaufmann and Arrowhead. I think part of the problem is the lack of a clear model for stadium redevelopment and renovation. There are some who want to follow the Atlanta model, but I don’t know if that’s replicable in other areas like Phoenix.

Steven: If it weren’t for a World Series appearance I think the D-backs were on the same path. Kendrick and Meruelo were peas in a pod when it came to providing the team with the funds to succeed despite public claims of losing money in an environment that has the best growth in all the world. With the war over Chase Field continuing to battle, I think it’s going to get messy before things get figured out and Kendrick will do whatever it takes to better his situation.

Justin: Well, to be clear if the D-backs also left, I would probably just be done with sports.

Thoughts on penguins?

Justin: I really like this question. 🙂 I think they are really cool. I love how they seem to fly in the water. If you have a PBS subscription, this is a good video from the Nature series. I don’t know if you are aware, but some penguins used to be much taller 😛

Edit- Oh, I just watched another really interesting program called, “Island of the penguins” on Prime.

Makakilo: Two interesting facts:

• Features on the sea floor can cause bulges on the ocean surface. Penguins sometimes use those bulges to navigate.
• Although penguins prefer fresh water, some species can survive drinking salt water because they have a gland in their head that removes excess salt from their blood (it runs out their nose).

Jim: Weirdly, cats like penguins can also hydrate themselves on salt water, though there it’s due to efficient kidney filtration. I can see why penguins evolved this: harder to see why felines did. Anyway, I used to have a knitted penguin as a young kid, and absolutely adored it. I think it was imaginatively named “Penguin”. I have an abiding childhood memory of going to Edinburgh Zoo and seeing the “Penguins Parade” there (top). They’re still probably my second favorite aquatic creature, trailing only behind narwhals. I’ll just leave this here:

ISH95: I think the fact they always wear tuxedos is a bit extra, but ya know, I admire the dedication to their own sense of fashion.

Ben: I love penguins. I was almost exactly in the target demographic for the “Happy Feet” (2006) and “March of the Penguins” (2005) in consecutive years so I’ve always had a soft spot for them. They’re also fascinating animals for their social behavior and symbolism in First Nations’ culture. Plus they’re friggin’ cute. I don’t know if any of these thoughts are particularly cogent or noteworthy, but they are thoughts!