Weather forecasters have mentioned Brits might face heavy snow from November and nicely into subsequent yr as a result of a weird climate system referred to as sudden stratospheric warming (SSW).
Despite its identify, SSW really causes temperatures within the UK to drop considerably. Some recent deep freezes and main snow occasions, together with 2018’s Beast from the East, got here on account of SSW.
“Warming” refers to what occurs within the stratosphere some 50km up within the sky. When temperatures there spike (typically growing as much as about 50C in two days) it has a knock on impact down right here.
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The Met Office explains: “Every yr in winter, sturdy westerly winds circle across the pole excessive up within the stratosphere. This known as the stratospheric polar vortex and it circulates round chilly air excessive over the Arctic.
“In some years, the winds within the polar vortex quickly weaken, and even reverse to movement from east to west. The chilly air then descends very quickly within the polar vortex and this causes the temperature within the stratosphere to rise very quickly, as a lot as 50°C over only some days; therefore the time period sudden stratospheric warming.
“As the chilly air from excessive up within the stratosphere disperses, it may have an effect on the form of the jet stream because the chilly air sinks from the stratosphere into the troposphere. It is this transformation within the jet stream that causes our climate to vary.”
The change within the jet stream could cause it to “snake” extra, creating an space of what’s referred to as “blocking excessive strain” over the North Atlantic and Scandinavia. This prevents different climate methods shifting previous it. In flip, it means the UK experiences prolonged durations of low temperatures – and in some instances the drop results in huge downpours of snow.
Exacta Weather forecaster James Madden mentioned there’s a “medium-high danger for an early SSW from in and round mid-November onwards this yr” – though it might take “a variety of weeks” earlier than it impacts our climate.
Moreover, he mentioned there’s “an excellent better danger for additional SSWs to happen all through January and February 2024 which can be more likely to be extremely influential on our total climate patterns when it comes to snow and chilly”.
Madden famous how this doesn’t suggest it can snowy all through that total interval, however insisted not less than one or two SSW occasions are arising this winter.
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