Friday’s free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!
My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report…
…are quite restrictive and have produced just one qualifier…
Thankfully, our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of ‘free’ racecards…
- 1.50 York
- 3.15 Newbury
- 5.00 Downpatrick
- 5.26 Newbury
- 7.40 Aintree
- 7.45 Downpatrick
The first on that list is a Listed race, but full of inexperienced runners, so I’m heading to Liverpool for a decent looking stayers’ contest. The 7.40 Aintree might not be of ‘Grand National’ proportions, but it’s a competitive 11-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ handicap chase (19 fences) over a left-handed 3m1f on good ground…
Bottom weight Go On Chez won last time out and Lounge LIzard comes here seeking a hat-trick, whilst top weight Kinondo Kwetu has two third places finishes at Class 1 after winning six straight races. Only Java Point and Tim Pat are winless in five.
Both Kinondo Kwetu and Ruthless Article are down in class from runs in valuable Class 1 handicaps (the former was third here over course and distance off today’s mark), whilst Topofthecotswolds and Saint Arvans both step up one class with Lounge Lizard and Go On Chez up two grades from wins at Class 4 last time out.
A few of these have had relatively recently wind surgery and Empire de Maulde, Kinondo Kwetu and Go On Chez now run for the first, second and fourth time respectively since their op.
Ruthless Article has won a 2m4f chase here at Aintree, whilst Kinondo Kwetu, Empire de Maulde and Go On Chez are former course and distance winners. Organdi, Hidden Heroics, Lounge Lizard and Topofthecotswolds have managed to win over a similar trip elsewhere,
Seven of the field have raced inside the last six weeks, but four (Topofthecotswolds, bottom weight Go On Chez, sole female Organdi and Empire de maulde) might well need the run, coming off respective breaks of 144, 189, 209 and some 371 days.
Instant Expert also tells me that all bar Java Point (0 from 5) have won a chase on good ground, but that only Ruthless Article & Empire de Maulde have won at this grade. All four runners to have visited Aintree have won here and only Tim Pat is waiting for a chase win over 3m to 3m2f after four attempts…
…whilst place form looks like this…
The place stats highlight decent last efforts from Empire de Maulde with a full line of green from the four main criteria (going/class/course/distance), whilst Kinindo Kwetu has 3 from 3, Go On Chez has 3 greens and a red (from just one C2 run) and Ruthless Article has 2 green and 2 amber. Lounge Lizard and Saint Arvans have no class/track experience but have handled the going and the trip well enough and the fact we can easily pull half a dozen names off that graphic shows the competitive nature of the contest.
The way this field have approached their most recent outings suggests they might get a little strung out…
…with Hidden Heroics, Topofthecotswolds and Lounge Lizard looking keen to get on with things, whilst I’d expect Saint Arvans and Go On Chez to let them get on with it and then wait for a late run. Fortunately for us, we know how previous past similar contests have panned out via our Pace Analyser…
…which say that whilst hold-up horses do go on to make the frame more than mid-division runners, they do struggle to win here, which is a bot of a blow to Saint Arvans and Go On Chez.
Summary
The two best runners here for me are Kinondo Kwetu and Lounge Lizard and they’d be my starting point. The former is coming off a pair of Class 1 third places, before which he was six from six. He drops in class here after racing over course and distance off today’s mark and that drop in class might be all he needs to get back to wining ways.
Lounge Lizard comes here seeking a hat-trick, but is up two classes and 9lbs. In fact, aside from one Class 3 outing, where he was beaten by 52 lengths, his other ten races have all been at Class 4 and this is a big step up, so of the pair, I’d be with Kinondo Kwetu. Only Hills had a book open at 4pm and I felt their 11/4 was a bit skinny as I was hoping for 7/2 or bigger, so I’ll wait that out.
For the places, Lounge Lizard might be vulnerable to those from behind him like Hidden Heroics and Saint Arvans who are both more than capable under these conditions with the latter particularly attractive as an E/W possible at 14’s, based on the way he has shaped in his last two runs.
Chris
Please Note, I’m away from home/my desk pretty much all day Friday, so no Saturday preview from me, sorry. I’ll be back Sunday for Monday’s racing.
