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READ the First Alert Hurricane Center “Survival Guide”
LISTEN & WATCH “Surviving the Storm” – WOKV Radio & Action News Jax
***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! *****
REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping home windows is *not* advisable & is not going to preserve glass from breaking. Instead shut curtains & blinds.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the typical forecast error over a given time – out to five days – & *doesn’t* point out the width of the storm &/or the place harm that may happen.
*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: None.
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
** Tammy is over the Central Atlantic…
A tropical wave/low stress space – ‘94-L’ – was upgraded to tropical storm “Tammy” late Wed. & to a hurricane Fri. morning. Tammy is now transferring north/northeast & will probably be over the SW & Central Atlantic a lot of the upcoming week.
The monitor later this week & past stays muddled with numerous options amongst the forecast fashions together with a great deal of run to run variability inside themselves. There is an growing likelihood that Tammy could also be left behind by the higher degree trough that may transfer throughout the N. Atlantic. If so, then Tammy would languish over the Southwest &/or Central Atlantic nicely north of the Caribbean for various days probably approaching Bermuda by the weekend after transitioning to a post-tropical ocean storm. A reasonably sharp flip to the west is the forecast by means of Sunday. The European mannequin has been probably the most adamant on this risk however reveals a really weak system by the weekend. The GFS then again has had a bent to take Tammy northeast over the open Atlantic however has not too long ago trended extra towards the European (extra west whereas weakening).
In any case… aside from an easterly swell alongside the east coast this week augmented by onshore movement & astronomically excessive tides, there will probably be no direct impacts to the U.S. by means of the weekend.
Additional spaghetti plots for Tammy:
The higher oceanic warmth content material (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] throughout the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean:
Water vapor loop (darkish blue/yellow is dry mid & higher degree air):
October tropical cyclone origins:
Averages beneath based mostly on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for October:
Wind shear:
Saharan mud spreads west every year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air – yellow/orange/crimson/pink. Widespread mud is indicative of dry air that may impede the event of tropical cyclones. However, typically “wanna’ be” waves will simply wait till they get to the opposite aspect of – or away from – the plume then attempt to develop if different situations are favorable. In my private opinion, means an excessive amount of is made concerning the presence of Saharan mud & the way it pertains to tropical cyclones. In any case, the height of Saharan mud sometimes is in June & July.
2023 names….. “Vince” is the subsequent identify on the Atlantic listing (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization… repeat each 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18… Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In reality, this 12 months’s listing of names is fairly notorious with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 listing & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 listing. The WMO determined – starting in 2021 – that the Greek alphabet will probably be not used & as a substitute there will probably be a supplemental listing of names if the primary listing is exhausted (has solely occurred thrice – 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones started on a constant foundation in 1953. More on the historical past of naming tropical cyclones * right here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & higher degree wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) evaluation (CIMMS). The crimson traces point out sturdy shear:
Water vapor imagery (darkish blue signifies dry air):
Deep oceanic warmth content material over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colours are increasing dramatically as we close to the height of the hurricane season.:
Sea floor temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. floor map:
Surface evaluation centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface evaluation of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Atlantic Basin wave interval forecast for twenty-four, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:
East/Central Pacific:
“Otis” – quickly intensified from a 50 mph tropical storm Mon. afternoon to a Cat. 5 160 mph hurricane Tue. night – just a bit greater than 24 hours! Early indications are that Otis tops the speed of intensification of highly effective Patricia over the E. Pacific in 2015. Landfall will probably be early Wed. close to Acapulco the place Cat. 3+ hurricanes are a rarity.
A Hurricane WARNING: Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo. A Hurricane WATCH: Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado. A Tropical Storm WARNING: Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado.
West Pacific:
‘Hamoon”:
“Lola”:
Global tropical exercise:
