Typhoon Lisa made landfall at 5:20 p.m. EDT Wednesday, Nov. 2, about 10 miles southwest of Belize City, Belize. At landfall, Lisa was a classification 1 storm with 85 miles per hour winds and a main pressure of 990 mb. The cyclone passed straight over the capital of Belize, Belize City, where a big storm rise flooded much of the city.
At 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, Lisa was focused about 65 miles southeast of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, heading west at 10 miles per hour, with leading continual winds of 35 miles per hour and a main pressure of 1008 mb. Although simply a tropical anxiety, Lisa appeared efficient on satellite images and Mexican radar, with a location of heavy thunderstorms that were bringing heavy rains to southern Mexico and northwestern Guatemala. Lisa is forecasted to bring 4-6 inches of rain to parts of Mexico along its track.
Projection for Lisa
Lisa is anticipated to turn more to the northwest, on a track that will bring it over the Gulf of Mexico’s Bay of Campeche on Friday early morning. Over the weekend, Lisa’s guiding currents will collapse, and the system will meander gradually over the Bay of Campeche. High wind shear of 20-30 knots and dry air with a midlevel relative humidity of 45-50% are anticipated over the Gulf this weekend, and these hostile conditions will likely lower Lisa to a residue low by Sunday.
Martin stays a cyclone far to the north in main Atlantic
Typhoon Martin has actually ended up being the most northern cyclone ever observed so late in the year in the Atlantic, preserving cyclone strength to a latitude of 45.6 ° N at 11 a.m. EDT Thursday. At that time, Martin lay about 765 miles northwest of the Azores, heading northeast at 48 miles per hour, with leading continual winds of 85 miles per hour and a main pressure of 960 mb. According to the NOAA historic cyclone database, the previous most northern cyclone on record so late in the year was held by an unnamed 1891 cyclone, which kept cyclone strength to a latitude of 45.12 ° N on November 6. Abnormally warm waters more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 ° F )above average assisted Martin stay a cyclone up until now to the north.
Martin’s life as a cyclone will end early Thursday afternoon, however, as the cyclone was over waters of simply 15 degrees Celsius (59 ° F). These cold waters, integrated with the existence of a strong cold front, are triggering Martin to shift to a hurricane-strength extratropical storm. Martin is not a danger to any acreage, however its strong winds cover a huge location of the northern Atlantic, and this wind field will produce big waves that will affect parts of Atlantic Canada, the Azores, and the Atlantic coast of Europe over the next couple of days.
The ascension of Lisa and Martin to cyclone status brings this season’s activity to 13 called storms, 7 typhoons, and 2 significant typhoons, with a Built Up Cyclone Energy (ACE) index 78% of average for the date. The 1991-2020 averages for Nov. 3 are 13.5 called storms, 6.7 typhoons, and 3.1 significant typhoons, so 2022 is now near-average for the variety of called storms and typhoons, however below par for ACE and significant typhoons.
New tropical disruption most likely to soak the Southeast U.S. next week
A big and really uncommon low-pressure system is anticipated to form early next week, as the counterclockwise circulation around a vast low near the Bahamas is forecasted to trigger the trade winds over much of the main Caribbean to reverse from their typical easterly instructions to burn out of the west. This nontropical low might get some tropical or subtropical qualities early next week as it wobbles to the northwest towards the Southeast U.S. coast. The low is most likely to bring a multiday duration of strong onshore circulation and periodic heavy rains to much of the coast from Florida to North Carolina, Monday through Friday. The plus size of the low, integrated with minimal upper-level winds and temperature levels, must make any advancement of the system sluggish to take place. In its 8 a.m. EDT Friday Tropical Weather Condition Outlook, the National Typhoon Center provided the system 2-day and 5-day chances of advancement of 0% and 30%, respectively.
Bob Henson added to this post.
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