Hurricane Lee quickly intensifying, anticipated to hit Cat 5 » Yale Local weather Connections

Hurricane Lee is quickly intensifying over the record-warm waters of the tropical Atlantic and is predicted to turn into an especially harmful Category 5 hurricane by Friday evening.

At 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, Lee was situated about 870 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, transferring west-northwest at 15 mph with prime sustained winds of 105 mph and a central stress of 983 mb. Satellite images early Thursday afternoon confirmed a outstanding eye had developed, and heavy thunderstorm exercise was steadily rising extra intense. Given the steadily bettering look of Lee, it’s more likely to be a Category 4 hurricane by Thursday evening, as predicted by the National Hurricane Center, with much more strengthening into Friday. The first hurricane hunter mission into Lee is scheduled for Thursday night.

Track forecast for Lee

Lee is anticipated to maneuver west-northwest at a ahead velocity of 11 – 14 mph this week, pushed by the clockwise circulation across the Azores-Bermuda High to the north. On this monitor, the system ought to move just a few hundred miles to the northeast of the northernmost Leeward Islands on Saturday and Sunday. This can be shut sufficient for the outer spiral bands to convey heavy rains and gusty winds to those islands, however the damaging winds of the eyewall would keep nicely out to sea. NHC predicts a couple of 10-20% probability of tropical storm-force winds in these islands.

Early subsequent week, Lee will attain the western fringe of the high-pressure ridge steering it, and gradual to a ahead velocity of 5-10 mph. By Tuesday, a trough of low stress transferring off the japanese coast of North America is anticipated to tug Lee to the north-northwest and begin steadily accelerating it. While this flip is at present predicted to maintain the core of Lee away from the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, these islands could expertise heavy rains from the outer spiral bands of Lee and ought to be alert to the potential for Lee to come back nearer than at present forecasted.

After turning to the north-northwest after which north subsequent week, Lee is anticipated to make its closest strategy to Bermuda round September 14-15. However, long-range forecast ability to date sooner or later is poor, and the risk to Bermuda is unclear. After Lee passes Bermuda, the hurricane poses a landfall risk to the Canadian Maritime provinces and the Northeast U.S.; the Thursday morning runs of the GFS and European fashions and their ensembles have been exhibiting {that a} landfall as far west as Massachusetts or as far east as Newfoundland have been prospects. It’s too early to rule out a landfall farther to the south alongside the U.S. East Coast north of Florida, although, and recurvature out to sea with out making landfall can be a powerful chance. The steering currents that might be figuring out Lee’s long-range monitor should not predicted to be significantly sturdy and well-defined to date, thus the uncertainty in the place Lee will go later subsequent week and past will stay excessive for a while, regardless of the seemingly sturdy long-range consensus within the ensemble fashions proven in Figure 1.

One impression appears assured, although: Lee will convey a chronic interval of excessive surf and harmful rip currents alongside your complete japanese seaboard late subsequent week, and to the northern shores of the islands of the northeastern Caribbean starting within the subsequent few days.

Intensity forecast for Lee

Lee at present has fairly favorable situations for intensification, with heat waters of 29.5 levels Celsius (85°F), low wind shear round 5 knots, and a fairly moist ambiance (a mid-level relative humidity of 60%). Conditions will develop exceptionally favorable by way of Sunday alongside Lee’s path: low wind shear, sea floor temperatures rising to 30.5 levels Celsius (87°F) – values which might be unprecedented for the open tropical Atlantic – and complete warmth content material of the ocean waters rising from about 60 kilojoules per sq. centimeter to 90 kilojoules per sq. centimeter. The depth fashions are in unanimous settlement that Lee will attain Category 4 or 5 power by week’s finish, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to make aggressive depth forecasts, calling for a Category 5 hurricane with 160 mph winds by Friday evening. As noted by NHC hurricane specialist David Zelinksy on Thursday morning, “Many of the models are calling for remarkable rates of intensification, beyond rates normally seen with model forecasts.”

The 12Z Thursday run of the DTOPS model gave Lee very excessive possibilities of speedy intensification:  a 98% probability of a forty five mph enhance in winds in 24 hours, and an 86% probability of a 65 mph enhance in 48 hours. Based on the atmospheric and oceanic situations anticipated Friday by way of Sunday, the SHIPS model predicted that Lee’s most potential depth – the strongest it may presumably get below very best situations – can be a Category 5 hurricane with 197 mph winds. The 6Z Thursday run of the HAFS-B model put Lee’s depth not far beneath that, predicting Lee would peak with 185 mph winds and a 916 mb central stress Friday afternoon. The 6Z Thursday runs of the HWRF, HMON, and HAFS-A fashions predicted Lee would peak with 150 mph, 160 mph, and 175 mph winds, respectively.

Once Lee turns north-northwest over the waters between the Bahamas and Bermuda subsequent week, situations for intensification will develop much less favorable, for the reason that storm must cross the cool water wakes left by Hurricane Franklin and Hurricane Idalia. Eyewall substitute cycles may result in ups and downs in Lee’s power over the subsequent few days. It is unsure what wind shear could be to date into the longer term, however Lee is more likely to weaken considerably earlier than any potential landfall within the U.S. or Canada happens late subsequent week or subsequent weekend.

TD 14 bringing heavy rains to the Cabo Verde Islands

Tropical Depression 14 shaped about 160 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands at 11 a.m. Thursday and satellite images confirmed that TD 14 was bringing heavy thunderstorms to the western parts of those islands. The melancholy was headed west-northwest at 15 mph and has no different land areas in its projected path, which is able to take it into the distant central Atlantic. Conditions are favorable for growth, and TD 14 is anticipated to turn into Hurricane Margot by early subsequent week.

Ex-Franklin has low odds of regeneration

The stays of Hurricane Franklin, which have been swirling just a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores on Thursday afternoon, are anticipated to maneuver north to northeast into cooler waters by Thursday evening, giving a scant probability for a tropical or subtropical storm to type. In their 8 a.m. EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave ex-Franklin two-day and seven-day odds of formation of 10%.

Next tropical wave

The GFS and European mannequin are exhibiting growth may happen by the center of subsequent week within the central tropical Atlantic of a tropical wave predicted to maneuver off the coast of Africa this weekend. This wave is just not but being highlighted by NHC of their Tropical Weather Outlook. This wave is predicted to come back off of Africa at a low sufficient latitude in order that it could be a long-range risk to the Caribbean.

Jova cranks as much as Category 5 power within the Eastern Pacific

After a rare burst of speedy intensification, Hurricane Jova grew to become the planet’s sixth Category 5 tropical cyclone of 2023 on Wednesday night whereas spinning greater than 500 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Jova vaulted from a 70-mph tropical storm at 11 p.m. EDT Tuesday to peak as a 160-mph category 5 hurricane at 11 p.m. EDT Wednesday ­­– a rare enhance of 90 mph in simply 24 hours.

The most speedy intensification on file for any hurricane (together with each Atlantic and Eastern Pacific) is a stunning 120 mph in 24 hours, completed by Hurricane Patricia, the strongest East Pacific hurricane on file, in late October 2015. Patricia’s blinding price of intensification was nurtured by unusually heat sea floor temperatures in addition to by the hurricane’s very small dimension, which allowed for very speedy depth adjustments. Patricia’s hurricane-force winds simply earlier than landfall extended out just 35 miles. Jova’s hurricane-force winds extend out simply 30 miles from the middle.

Over the previous 50 years of dependable satellite-based information within the Eastern Pacific, there have been 19 Category 5 storms, together with Jova. As is the case proper now, the waters of the tropical Northeast Pacific sometimes get a warming increase through the onset of El Niño occasions. In reality, all however 4 of the Cat 5s on file within the Eastern Pacific have occurred in such El Niño–pushed seasons, together with Emilia and Gilma (1994); Guillermo and Linda (1997); Elida, Hernan, and Kenna (2002); Ioke (2006); Rick (2009); Marie (2014), Patricia (2015); and Lane, Walaka, and Willa (2018). Fortunately, many of the Eastern Pacific’s Category 5 storms – and most of its hurricanes total – stay safely out to sea. The similar is expected for Jova, which is able to doubtless be not more than a tropical storm by Sunday because it strikes over more and more chilly waters.