Wild chicken populations within the UK, 1970 to 2021

Use of the info

This info is licensed below the Open Government Licence v3.0. To view go to the Open Government Licence for public sector information or write to the:

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or e-mail: [email protected]

National Statistics Designation Statement

The statistics on this launch have been designated as National Statistics. This standing signifies that statistics meet the very best requirements of trustworthiness, high quality and public worth, and it’s Defra’s duty to keep up compliance with these requirements. These statistics final underwent a full evaluation towards the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2012. See Assessment Report 173 Statistics on Sustainability and the Environment in England and the UK. Since that evaluation by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we’ve continued to adjust to the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Responsible Statistician: Christine Holleran

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Key adjustments to the UK wild chicken publication

Updates for this publication are:

What we’ve not up to date on this publication:

• We have been unable to update seabirds chapter 5 as the gathering of 2020 information was affected by COVID-19 restrictions and the Seabird Monitoring Programme (SMP) has not too long ago transferred from the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) to the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO). BTO are planning to publish developments from the SMP later this 12 months.

• We have been unable to update wintering waterbirds chapter 6, as information assortment in the course of the winter season of 2020/2021 was affected by COVID-19 restrictions.

• We will now not be producing Annex A as a part of the publication which confirmed long-term and short-term developments in chicken species by habitat. All the info can be accessible within the information units offered alongside this publication.

Executive abstract

The mixed all-species index has proven a shallow decline over the past 45 years, nevertheless, this masks appreciable flux, with some species growing and a few species reducing. Changes by habitat are summarised under; unsmoothed figures are used for comparability with the latest 12 months; and smoothed indices to the penultimate 12 months are used to evaluate change over lengthy and/or short-term developments as they cut back short-term peaks and troughs.

Figure 1: Populations of untamed birds within the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 1

Download the data for Figure 1 in csv format

Notes about Figure 1:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 130 species of untamed birds.
• Figure 1 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.

The latest 12 months information reveals that for 2021:

• the unsmoothed all-species index within the UK was 12% under its 1970 worth
• the unsmoothed farmland chicken index was 44% of its 1970 worth
• the unsmoothed woodland chicken index was 34% under its 1970 worth
• the unsmoothed water and wetland chicken index was 11% decrease than in 1975
• the unsmoothed upland chicken index was 8% under its 1994 worth

The information for the seabirds and the wintering waterbirds indices haven’t been up to date this 12 months, so the next developments from the 2021 publication are nonetheless present:

• in 2019, the unsmoothed seabirds index was 24% under its 1986 worth
• the unsmoothed wintering waterbirds index was 86% increased in 2019/2020 than in 1975/1976

Table 1a: exhibiting lengthy and short-term smoothed developments at a look for the UK [note 1]

Table 1b: exhibiting lengthy and short-term developments at a look for England [notes 2,3,4, and 5]

Notes for Table 1a and Table 1b:

[1] Short-term developments for upland birds can’t be assessed but attributable to further time required to change this system.
[2] Data for the seabirds and wintering waterbirds indices solely present developments to 2018.
[3] The seabird indicator is an unsmoothed development as no smoothed development is but accessible.
[4] Data for seabirds are assessed utilizing a 5% rule of thumb.
[5] Data from surveys of wintering waterbirds are primarily based largely on full counts at colonies or wetland and coastal websites of markedly various measurement. This signifies that bootstrapping strategies can’t be utilized reliably and therefore developments for these teams are at the moment introduced with out confidence intervals however are assessed utilizing a 5% rule of thumb.

Introduction

Why monitor chicken populations

Bird populations have lengthy been thought-about to offer a superb indication of the broad state of wildlife within the UK. This is as a result of they occupy a variety of habitats and reply to environmental pressures that additionally function on different teams of wildlife. In addition, there are appreciable long-term information on developments in chicken populations, permitting for comparability between developments within the quick time period and long run. Because they’re a well-studied taxonomic group, drivers of change for birds are higher understood than for different species teams, which allow higher interpretation of any noticed adjustments. Birds even have enormous cultural significance and are extremely valued as part of the UK’s pure atmosphere by most of the people. Although chicken indicators can replicate the well being of the pure atmosphere extra broadly, these introduced on this publication shouldn’t be utilized in isolation to deduce the standing of all different species teams.

It shouldn’t be practical to find out adjustments within the precise variety of birds for every species within the UK every year, however it’s potential and extra dependable to evaluate their standing by calculating relative change, primarily based on counts on consultant pattern plots surveyed as a part of nationwide monitoring schemes (see Main notes on the finish for extra particulars of the surveys sources used).

Trends in chicken populations are utilized by coverage makers, authorities businesses and non-governmental organisations as a part of the proof base with which to evaluate the consequences of environmental administration, akin to agricultural practices or woodland administration, on chicken populations. The developments are additionally used to evaluate the effectiveness of environmental interventions meant to deal with declines, akin to agri-environment schemes focused at farmland birds.

Understanding the chicken inhabitants indices

Individual chicken species inhabitants developments, primarily based on fastidiously designed surveys undertaken largely by volunteer consultants, are calculated as a sequence of annual indices. These relate the inhabitants in a given 12 months to a ‘baseline’ – the primary 12 months that information can be found – which is given a worth of 100. Thereafter, the index is expressing the inhabitants as a proportion of this ‘baseline’.

This annual Defra National Statistics Release presents information developments as much as 2021 in populations of widespread birds (species with a inhabitants of no less than 500 breeding pairs) which can be native to, and breed in, the UK, with developments total in addition to for 4 principal habitat teams (see related information units printed alongside this update for a listing of birds in every group). The launch additionally presents developments as much as 2019/2020 for wintering waterbirds, a few of which additionally breed within the UK and a brand new index for birds within the uplands.

The charts introduced mix particular person species indices right into a single indicator to offer an total development for every group talked about above. Using a geometrical imply – a mean calculated by multiplying a set of index values and taking the nth root, the place n is the variety of index values. More info could be present in Introduction to the Wild Birds Population Indicator. The indices are thought-about to present dependable medium to long-term developments, however robust reliance shouldn’t be hooked up to short-term adjustments from 12 months to 12 months.

Assessing developments

Two developments are referred to within the textual content: the unsmoothed indices present year-to-year fluctuation in populations, reflecting the noticed adjustments within the survey outcomes; and smoothed developments, that are used to formally assess the statistical significance of change over time. For seabirds, there are at the moment no smoothed developments. Smoothed developments are used for each lengthy and short-term assessments as they cut back the short-term peaks and troughs ensuing from, for instance, year-to-year climate and sampling variations in addition to good or unhealthy breeding seasons See analytical methods on BTO website (Fewster et al. 2000. Ecology 81: 1970 to 1984). The most recent information level in smoothed developments, that’s, 2020 (see BTO Research Report on ‘Production of smoothed population trends when a year of data is missing’ on BTO’s ‘Bird Indicators’ web page) on this update, is more likely to change as a result of smoothing course of following the inclusion of 2022 information in subsequent 12 months’s update. As a end result, it isn’t applicable to make assessments together with this final inter-year interval. Where outcomes from the smoothed indices are quoted, that is clearly indicated.

These developments are primarily based on estimates from surveys. Smoothed developments are introduced with 95% confidence intervals (CI), that are a measure of the precision of those survey estimates: a 95% CI means customers could be 95% assured that the true worth of an indicator in a given 12 months falls throughout the confidence interval round it. The width of the arrogance intervals varies between habitat indicators as a result of it’s influenced by the variety of species in every indicator and the precision of the person species developments that make up the indicator. For the symptoms derived from species developments that can’t be statistically evaluated by this technique (for instance, wintering waterbirds and all-species), a threshold of 5% is used to judge the importance of the change.

Throughout this launch, evaluation durations are known as:

• ‘Long-term’ – an evaluation of change for the reason that earliest date for which information can be found; this varies amongst indicators and amongst particular person species.
• ‘Short-term’ – an evaluation of change over the latest 5 years for which information can be found.

The information units printed alongside this update present long-term and short-term assessments for every particular person chicken species.

Alongside the general index, the proportion of species inside every indicator which have elevated or decreased within the long-term and within the short-term can also be proven. This relies on the common fee of annual change over the lengthy or short-term, categorised by how a lot the inhabitants would change if that annual change continued for 25 years. These thresholds are asymmetrical to characterize symmetrical proportional change in an index, that’s, the alternative of a 50% decline is a doubling (a 100% enhance), not a 50% enhance. These thresholds are derived from these used within the Birds of Conservation Concern standing evaluation on the BTO web site for birds within the UK. The following bar chart illustrates how we present the proportion of species falling into every class:

The 5 classes of change are outlined as:

• robust enhance: inhabitants enhance of 100% or extra
• weak enhance: greater than 33% however lower than 100% enhance
• little change: between a 25% lower and a 33% enhance
• weak decline: lower than 50% however larger than 25% lower
• robust decline: inhabitants lower of fifty% or extra

The chicken inhabitants indices have been compiled along side the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

1. Native breeding wild chicken populations within the UK

Trend description

In 2021, the unsmoothed all-species index within the UK, primarily based on the aggregated inhabitants developments of 130 breeding species, was 12% under its 1970 worth.

The indicator declined between the late Nineteen Seventies and the late Nineteen Eighties, pushed principally by comparatively steep declines in woodland and farmland birds. The all-species index has since levelled off though the smoothed index reveals a big 5% lower between 2015 and 2020.

Within the index, 26% of the 130 species elevated, 43% confirmed little change and 28% declined between 1970 and 2020. It was not potential to calculate a long-term development for 4 species as a result of their information sequence begin in 2006 or later.

Over the short-term interval between 2015 and 2020, 24% of species elevated, 28% confirmed little change and 48% declined.

Figure 1.1: Populations of untamed birds within the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 1.1

Download the data for Figure 1.1 in csv format

Figure 1.2: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for wild birds within the UK, 1970 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 1.2

Download the data for Figure 1.2 in csv format

Notes for Figures 1.1 and 1.2

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 130 species of untamed birds.
• Figure 1.1 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 1.2 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 1.2 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Species breakdown

The 130 species of birds included within the index contains all widespread species, with populations of no less than 500 breeding pairs, for which there are adequate information to calculate a development. Species developments inside this index fluctuate broadly, from species growing several-fold (for instance, Cetti’s warbler, blackcap, buzzard, nice noticed woodpecker, purple kite and collared dove) to these having declined to lower than a tenth of 1970 numbers (for instance, turtle dove, capercaillie, lesser whitethroat, willow tit, gray partridge, tree sparrow and noticed flycatcher). The principal patterns and drivers of change are finest thought-about by trying on the indices of species grouped by habitat under in Figure 1.3 and described in additional element within the chapters that observe.

Figure 1.3: Populations of untamed birds within the UK by habitat, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 1.3

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Notes for Figures 1.3

• Figure 1.3 reveals the unsmoothed developments (dashed line) and the smoothed developments (stable line) for the 4 principal habitat teams of untamed birds.

2. Breeding farmland chicken populations within the UK

Trend description

Farmland refers back to the 75% of land within the UK which is dedicated to agriculture. Farmland additionally offers semi-natural habitats akin to hedgerows and area margins that present meals and shelter to birds.

In 2021 the UK farmland chicken index was 44% of its 1970 worth. The majority of this decline occurred between the late Nineteen Seventies and the Nineteen Eighties largely as a result of destructive influence of fast adjustments in farmland administration throughout this era. The decline has continued at a slower fee extra not too long ago; the smoothed index decreased considerably by 5% between 2015 and 2020 and between 1970 and 2020 by 58%.

Since 1970, 21% of species confirmed a weak enhance, 16% confirmed little change and 63% confirmed both a weak or robust decline.

Some species confirmed some restoration over the short-term interval between 2015 and 2020; 32% of species elevated, 21% confirmed little change and 47% declined.

Figure 2.1: Breeding farmland birds within the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 2.1

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Figure 2.2: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for farmland birds within the UK, 1970 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 2.2

Download the data for Figure 2.2 in csv format

Notes for Figures 2.1 and a couple of.2:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 19 species of farmland birds.
• Figure 2.1 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 2.2 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 2.2 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Factors affecting farmland chicken populations

The giant declines within the abundance of many farmland birds have various recognized and potential causes. For a big half, declines have been attributable to the adjustments in farming practices which have taken place for the reason that Fifties and Sixties, such because the lack of combined farming, a transfer from spring to autumn sowing of arable crops, change in grassland administration (for instance, a swap from hay to silage manufacturing), elevated pesticide and fertiliser use, and the removing of non-cropped options akin to hedgerows. The fee of those adjustments, which resulted within the lack of appropriate nesting and appropriate feeding habitats, and a discount in accessible meals, was biggest in the course of the late Nineteen Seventies and early Nineteen Eighties, the interval throughout which many farmland chicken populations declined most quickly. However, some generalist species akin to woodpigeon have benefitted from elevated availability of their meals all through the winter owing to the autumn sowing of crops.

Some farming practices proceed to have destructive impacts on chicken populations, however most farmers can and do take constructive steps to preserve birds on their land. In specific, various incentive schemes encourage improved environmental stewardship in farming, with some measures particularly designed to assist stabilise and get better farmland chicken populations. These embrace the availability of over-wintered stubbles and planted wild chicken crop covers to offer seed within the winter, uncropped margins on arable fields and sympathetic administration of hedgerows. There is rising proof that such motion can ship native recoveries in farmland chicken populations and thus, if delivered at applicable scale, wider restoration. Changes in numbers skilled by some species could, to a lesser extent, be additional pushed by different pressures. For instance, there may be proof of an adversarial influence from illness for some species, most notably greenfinch.

For extra details about the proof for this indicator, see the proof assertion Annex 1.03 Evidence Statement for C5a Farmland Birds.

Species breakdown

The farmland chicken index accommodates information for 19 species. The long-term decline of the farmland chicken indicator within the UK has been pushed primarily by the decline of these species which can be restricted to, or extremely depending on, farmland habitats (the ‘specialists’). Between 1970 and 2021, the unsmoothed index for farmland specialists declined by 71% whereas for farmland generalists it declined by 13%. The smoothed development reveals a big decline of 71% for specialists and a non-significant decline of 18% for generalists (Figure 2.3). Over the quick time period, nevertheless, the decline in generalists has been larger than specialists (see determine 2.3).

Figure 2.3: Breeding farmland birds within the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 2.3

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Notes for Figure 2.3:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 19 species of farmland birds, of which 12 species are farmland specialists and seven species are farmland generalists.
• Figure 2.3 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line).

Farmland specialists

Changes in farming practices, such because the lack of combined farming programs, the transfer from spring to autumn sowing of cereal crops, and elevated pesticide use, have been demonstrated to have had adversarial impacts on farmland birds akin to skylark and gray partridge. Five farmland specialists (corn bunting, gray partridge, starling, turtle dove and tree sparrow) have skilled extreme declines in extra of 80% since 1970. In distinction, numbers of two different farmland specialists (inventory dove and goldfinch) have greater than doubled over the identical interval, illustrating how responses to pressures varies amongst species. The smoothed index reveals that between 2015 and 2020 on common specialists declined, albeit non-significantly by 4%. Turtle dove, has proven a marked change in numbers over this recent 5-year interval, reducing by 45%. Whereas inventory dove and goldfinch elevated by 19% and 13% respectively.

Overall, 17% of the 12 specialist species within the farmland indicator elevated, 8% confirmed little change and 75% declined over the long-term interval.

Between 2015 and 2020, 33% of the specialist species within the farmland chicken indicator elevated, 8% confirmed little change and 58% declined.

Figure 2.4: Breeding farmland specialist birds within the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 2.4

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Figure 2.5: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for farmland specialist birds within the UK, 1970 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 2.5

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Notes for Figures 2.4 and a couple of.5:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 12 species of farmland specialist birds.
• Figure 2.4 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 2.5 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 2.5 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Farmland generalists

There are 7 generalist farmland species included within the indicator they usually utilise a wider vary of habitats than the specialist farmland species. Since 1970 the generalist farmland smoothed index has fallen, however non-significantly, by 18%.

Three generalist species have declined over the long-term interval: greenfinch by 68%, yellow wagtail by 64% and kestrel by 52%. While 2 species (rook and reed bunting) haven’t modified considerably total, 2 species have elevated; woodpigeon and jackdaw populations have greater than doubled relative to 1970 ranges.

The smoothed index reveals that between 2015 and 2020 generalists declined considerably by 6% on common. Two of the seven species decreased over this quick time interval: greenfinch by 39% and kestrel by 9%. Greenfinch has been strongly impacted by the illness trichomonosis, which can even have affected different species akin to turtle dove, in recent years. One species with a historical past of long-term decline has proven indicators of recent enchancment, the yellow wagtail, which elevated by 11%.

Figure 2.6: Breeding farmland generalist birds within the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 2.6

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Figure 2.7: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for farmland generalist birds within the UK, 1970 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 2.7

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Notes for Figures 2.6 and a couple of.7:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 7 species of farmland generalist birds.
• Figure 2.6 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 2.7 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 2.7 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

3. Breeding woodland chicken populations within the UK

Trend description

Woodland covers 13% of the UK’s land space, offering bushes and different vegetation appropriate for nesting, foraging alternatives and canopy from predators.

In 2021, the UK woodland chicken index was 34% under its 1970 worth. The biggest decline occurred between the early Nineteen Eighties and the early Nineteen Nineties. The smoothed index was secure, at round 80% of the 1970 numbers, between 1995 and 2012, since when it has decreased considerably by 12% between 2015 and 2020.

Since 1970, 16% of species elevated, 54% confirmed little change and 30% declined, the vast majority of the latter exhibiting a robust decline.

Over the short-term interval between 2015 and 2020, 5% of species elevated, 35% confirmed little change and 59% declined.

Figure 3.1: Breeding woodland birds within the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 3.1

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Figure 3.2: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for woodland birds within the UK, 1970 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 3.2

Download the data for Figure 3.2 in csv format

Notes for Figures 3.1 and three.2:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 37 species of woodland birds.
• Figure 3.1 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 3.2 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 3.2 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Factors affecting woodland birds

The declines in woodland birds have a number of recognized and potential causes, akin to an absence of woodland administration (together with the cessation of conventional practices akin to coppicing) and elevated deer searching stress, each of which end in a diminished range of woodland construction and diminished availability of appropriate nesting and foraging habitats. Changes in farmland administration, such because the removing of hedgerows, adversely impacted lots of the species within the indicator which have substantial populations outdoors of woodland, for instance, in farmland and gardens. In addition, a number of declining woodland birds are long-distance migrants, and a decline within the extent or high quality of habitats used outdoors of the UK within the non-breeding season (in stop-over websites or African wintering areas) could also be a big issue affecting these species. Positive components embrace the growing space of woodland cowl and milder winters doubtlessly having a helpful influence for some species.

For extra details about the proof for this indicator, see the proof assertion Annex 1.04 Evidence Statement for C5b Woodland Birds.

Species breakdown

The woodland chicken index accommodates information for 37 species. The total development masks completely different underlying developments for specialist species, these that are extremely depending on woodland habitats, and generalist species, that are present in a variety of habitats, together with woodland.

In 2021, the woodland specialists index was 53% decrease than in 1970, whereas the index for woodland generalists was 3% increased than in 1970. The smoothed development reveals a big long-term decline of fifty% for specialists and no change for generalists (Figure 3.3). Over the quick time period, the woodland specialists have decreased considerably by 16% and the woodland generalists have decreased by 5%.

Figure 3.3: Breeding woodland birds within the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 3.3

Download the data for Figure 3.3 in csv format

Notes for Figure 3.3:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 37 species of farmland birds, of which 25 species are woodland specialists and 12 species are woodland generalists.
• Figure 3.3 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line).

Woodland specialists

Five woodland specialists, lesser noticed woodpecker, lesser redpoll, noticed flycatcher, capercaillie and willow tit, have declined by over 80% relative to 1970 ranges, with the latter down by 95%. In distinction, populations of nuthatch have greater than trebled over the identical interval and each blackcap and nice noticed woodpecker have greater than quadrupled in numbers.

The smoothed index reveals that between 2015 and 2020 woodland specialists decreased considerably, by 16%. Various species have proven marked developments over this 5-year interval, with lesser noticed woodpecker reducing by 49%, each wooden warbler and capercaillie by 44%, noticed flycatcher by 39%, willow tit by 28% and customary crossbill by 16%. Whereas blackcap and nuthatch have each elevated by 21% and 11% respectively. Trends in long-distance migrants could presumably replicate altering circumstances on their wintering grounds whereas declines in residents akin to lesser noticed woodpecker, willow tit and capercaillie should be attributable to components on their breeding grounds.

Overall, 20% of the 25 specialist species within the woodland indicator elevated, 36% confirmed little change and 44% declined over the long-term interval (1970 to 2020).

Between 2015 and 2020, 8% of the 25 specialist species elevated, 24% confirmed little change and 68% confirmed a weak or robust lower.

Figure 3.4: Breeding specialist woodland birds within the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 3.5: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for woodland specialist birds within the UK, 1970 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 3.5

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Notes for Figures 3.4 and three.5:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 25 species of woodland specialist birds.
• Figure 3.4 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 3.5 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 3.5 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Woodland generalists

The majority of generalist woodland species, a lot of which have tailored to utilizing gardens and wooded areas in farmland landscapes, haven’t proven a considerable change over the long run and the general woodland generalist smoothed index elevated, by 3% since 1970. In the quick time period, between 2015 and 2020, the woodland generalist smoothed index has declined by 5%.

Populations of 4 woodland generalist species (bullfinch, tune thrush, dunnock and tawny owl) have declined greater than 30% since 1970; tune thrush by 49%. In distinction, populations of long-tailed tit and nice tit elevated by 94% and 75% respectively, since 1970. It appears possible that small-bodied resident passerines (most songbirds) have benefitted from the development in direction of milder winters regardless of being knocked again in the course of the occasional harsh winter akin to in 2017/2018.

Five out of 12 species decreased over the short-term interval: chaffinch exhibiting a robust lower of 25%. Tawny owl and wren each decreased by 8% and there have been decreases of seven% for each bullfinch and dunnock. The remaining 7 woodland generalist species confirmed little change, between 2015 and 2020.

Figure 3.6: Breeding generalist woodland birds within the UK, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 3.7: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for woodland generalist birds within the UK, 1970 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 3.7

Download the data for Figure 3.7 in csv format

Notes for Figures 3.6 and three.7:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 12 species of woodland generalist birds.
• Figure 3.6 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 3.7 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 3.7 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

4. Breeding water and wetland chicken populations within the UK

Trend description

Water and wetlands embrace rivers, lakes, ponds, reedbeds, coastal marshes, different moist grasslands, and lowland raised bogs, collectively totalling 3% of the UK’s space and offering vital habitats for birds. Species included within the wetland indicator are these outlined as having a constructive affiliation with waterways or wetlands, and in addition embrace some upland birds and people additionally related to farmland, for instance reed bunting and yellow wagtail.

Produced largely utilizing the inhabitants developments from surveys in or alongside wetland habitats, the water and wetland chicken index has remained pretty secure for a lot of the interval since information assortment began in 1975 however has been decrease within the final decade. In 2021 the water and wetland chicken index was 11% decrease than in 1975 and the smoothed development reveals a non-significant decline of 12%. More not too long ago the smoothed index decreased non-significantly by 2% between 2015 and 2020.

Over the long run, 28% of species elevated, 44% confirmed little change and 28% declined, with extra species exhibiting a weak reasonably than a robust change.

Over the short-term interval between 2015 and 2020, 23% of species elevated, 38% confirmed little change and 38% declined.

Figure 4.1: Breeding water and wetland birds within the UK, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 4.1

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Figure 4.2: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for water and wetland birds within the UK, 1975 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 4.2

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Notes for Figures 4.1 and 4.2:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 26 species of water and wetland birds.
• Figure 4.1 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 4.2 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 4.2 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Factors affecting water and wetland chicken populations

The historic declines in breeding waders resulted from land administration adjustments akin to drainage, the intensification of grassland administration and the conversion of coastal and floodplain grazing marshes to arable land. Where populations persist in small fragments of high-quality habitat, their nests and younger could be susceptible to predation, which is at the moment considered limiting the restoration of a number of species of breeding wader. However, a spread of species, significantly these related to standing water our bodies, have benefitted from habitat creation, significantly from the restoration of post-extraction gravel pits. Additionally, there was a internet constructive influence from improved survival charges as a result of development in direction of milder winters.

For extra details about the proof for this indicator, see the proof assertion Annex 1.05 Evidence Statement for C5c Wetland Birds.

Species breakdown

The 26 species of chicken included within the water and wetland chicken index could be cut up into 4 classes for producing sub-habitat indicators. Although the index for all wetland and waterways species reveals a comparatively flat development, this masks underlying and marked variations between sub-habitat indicators (Figure 4.3). When deciphering these developments, it ought to be borne in thoughts that every sub-habitat development is derived from comparatively few species’ developments.

Figure 4.3 : Breeding water and wetland birds within the UK, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 4.3

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Notes for Figure 4.3:

• Figure 4.3 reveals the unsmoothed developments (dashed line) and the smoothed developments (stable line) for the 4 sub-habitat indicators of breeding water and wetland birds.

Birds of gradual flowing and standing water

Birds of gradual flowing and standing water have proven essentially the most constructive development, doubtlessly benefitting most from wetland creation; in 2021 the index was 21% increased than in 1975 (Figure 4.4). However, the smoothed index has proven a big 12% lower within the extra recent short-term interval between 2015 and 2020 reflecting a destructive turn-around within the fortunes of this group within the final decade. Over the long run there was a marked enhance in one of many duck species; numbers of breeding mallards have almost trebled.

Overall, 1 of the 6 (mallard) species elevated and 5 confirmed little change in the long run.

In the quick time period, between 2015 and 2020, 2 species confirmed little change and 4 species declined. Numbers of each tufted duck and coot confirmed robust declines of 23% and 17% respectively, regardless of exhibiting little change over the long run.

Figure 4.4: Breeding birds of gradual flowing and standing water within the UK, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 4.5: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for birds of gradual flowing and standing water within the UK, 1975 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 4.5

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Notes for Figures 4.4 and 4.5:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for six species for birds of gradual flowing and standing water.
• Figure 4.4 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 4.5 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 4.5 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Birds of quick flowing water

The index for birds of quick flowing water was 16% decrease in 2021 than in 1975 and the smoothed index declined considerably by 20% between 1975 and 2020. Like the general indicator for breeding wetland and waterways birds, it dipped throughout 2010 to 2013, though not as little as within the early eighties, and has decreased albeit non-significantly by 5% within the recent 5 years from 2015 to 2020 (Figure 4.6). Although all 4 species are depending on meals from water, they share one other attribute of being discovered primarily in upland areas.

The index for widespread sandpiper has declined weakly by 53%, whereas numbers of goosander have greater than doubled and the indices for each dipper and gray wagtail confirmed little change in the long run.

In the quick time period between 2015 and 2020 the index for goosander elevated by 6%. The indices for each widespread sandpiper and dipper confirmed decreases whereas the index for gray wagtail confirmed little change.

Figure 4.6: Breeding birds of quick flowing water within the UK, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 4.7: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for birds of quick flowing water within the UK, 1975 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 4.7

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Notes for Figures 4.6 and 4.7:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 4 species for birds of quick flowing water.
  • Figure 4.6 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
  • Figure 4.7 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
  • Figure 4.7 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Birds of reedbeds

The index for birds of reedbeds was 8% increased in 2021 than in 1975 (Figure 4.8) and the smoothed index reveals a non-significant 11% enhance between 1975 and 2020. The smoothed index has proven a non-significant enhance of 1% between 2015 and 2020.

In the long run, reed bunting and sedge warbler have proven declines in wetland habitats, of 66% and 50% respectively. In distinction Cetti’s warbler has proven an 8-fold enhance since 1988 (when the species exceeded the five hundred pair threshold for inclusion within the indicator, following the colonisation of the UK in 1972) and there was an 87% enhance in reed warblers since 1981.

During the short-term interval, sedge warblers present a decline, falling 11% between 2015 and 2020, while the reed bunting and reed warbler confirmed little change. Cetti’s warbler elevated strongly, by 22%.

Figure 4.8: Breeding birds of reedbeds within the UK, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 4.9: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for birds of reedbeds within the UK, 1975 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 4.9

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Notes for Figures 4.8 and 4.9:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 4 species for birds of reedbeds.
• Figure 4.8 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 4.9 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 4.9 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Birds of moist grassland

The unsmoothed index for birds of moist grassland was 49% decrease in 2021 than in 1975 and the smoothed index reveals a big 50% decline between 1975 and 2020 (Figure 4.10). The majority of the decline, which has been pushed by drainage and the lack of habitat, occurred between the height within the mid-Nineteen Eighties and the mid-Nineteen Nineties. More not too long ago the indicator has proven indicators of stability; the smoothed indicator reveals zero change over the interval 2015 to 2020.

Over the long run, though some wildfowl (mute swan and teal) have proven a rise, yellow wagtail (in wetland habitats) and snipe have declined strongly, by 96% and 81% respectively.

Over the quick time period since 2015, yellow wagtail elevated by 21% alongside waterways regardless of its decline in the long run. Numbers of lapwing and redshank fell strongly by 26% and 19% respectively. In distinction the index for snipe has proven little change over this 5-year interval. Little egret, which was included for the primary time in 2006 and due to this fact not assessed over the long-term interval, has elevated by 30% since 2013.

Figure 4.10: Breeding birds of moist grassland within the UK, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 4.11: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for birds of moist grassland within the UK, 1975 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 4.11

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Notes for Figures 4.10 and 4.11:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 8 species for birds of moist grassland.
• Figure 4.10 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 4.11 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 4.11 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

5. Breeding seabird populations within the UK

In the 2020 publication the breeding seabird index was up to date with information as much as and together with 2019. In addition to the annual monitoring scheme SMP, JNCC is working, in affiliation with different companions, on the completion of the subsequent breeding seabird census, Seabirds Count (2015 to 2021) throughout Britain and Ireland. Regular counts at a pattern of colonies present robust trends, however total inhabitants censuses are additionally required so as to add context and assist to establish why adjustments is likely to be taking place, in addition to to allow the calculation of between-census developments for these seabird species not monitored by the annual pattern surveying. Additionally, conducting periodic censuses permits the accuracy of SMP annual monitoring developments to be examined and the chance to grasp how breeding seabird populations is likely to be altering spatially. This is particularly vital when contemplating inland and concrete breeding species, that are not often monitored yearly. The seabird figures are introduced with unsmoothed confidence intervals. Smoothed developments and assessments of change primarily based on smoothed developments can be calculated subsequently.

The UK coast is over 30,000km lengthy, and consists of all kinds of habitats akin to sea cliffs, sand dunes, shingle ridges, machair and intertidal areas. Additionally, the world of sea across the UK quantities to a few and a half occasions the land space of the UK (not together with abroad territories).

In 2019, the breeding seabird index within the UK was 24% decrease than in 1986, barely above the bottom degree ever recorded (of 31% decrease than 1986, recorded in 2013). Despite fluctuations, the indicator was largely flat from 1986 till the early-2000s when seabird numbers began to say no, and the long-term development (to 2018) reveals a big 28% lower. However, extra not too long ago the unsmoothed breeding seabird index has elevated, non-significantly, by 3% between 2013 and 2018.

Since 1986, 8% of 13 seabird species confirmed a weak enhance, 38% confirmed little change and 54% confirmed both a weak or a robust decline.

Over the short-term interval between 2013 and 2018, 46% of the 13 species elevated, 23% confirmed little change and 31% declined.

Figure 5.1: Breeding seabirds within the UK, 1986 to 2019

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 5.2: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for seabirds within the UK, 1986 to 2018

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 5.2

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Notes for Figures 5.1 and 5.2:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 13 species of seabird.
• Figure 5.1 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart. No smoothed development is accessible for seabirds, however this can be in future publications.
• Figure 5.2 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 5.2 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Factors affecting seabird populations

This measure is focussed on the marine atmosphere. Accordingly, for various species (for instance, herring gull, nice cormorant), the indicator makes use of information for coastal populations (colonies inside 5km of the shoreline) solely, reasonably than information from all breeding areas of those species. This focusses the indicator on adjustments on the coast and in marine waters however means adjustments in inland populations will not be taken under consideration. Work is at the moment underway to enhance survey protection of inland colonies so {that a} development primarily based on all breeding areas could be included within the ‘all-species indicator’.

One of the 13 seabird species has elevated for the reason that starting of the index in 1986; razorbill numbers have greater than doubled. Two species have declined strongly since 1986 – Arctic skua by 80% and black-legged kittiwake by 64%. The decline of black-legged kittiwakes has been linked to local weather change impacts on marine meals webs, and fishery pressures. However, there was some enchancment within the quick time period, throughout which black-legged kittiwakes have proven a robust enhance, of 20% between 2013 and 2018. Some seabirds have been impacted via predation by invasive non-native mammals akin to rats and mink, although profitable eradication programmes have been carried out in various areas and populations of some species have undergone native recoveries in consequence.

In addition to black-legged kittiwakes one other 2 of the 13 seabird species have elevated strongly between 2013 and 2018: razorbill and sandwich tern by 35% and 26% respectively. Numbers of nice black-backed gull are reducing strongly by 32% within the quick time period, though the long-term development is a weak decline.

The seabird index within the UK in 2019 continues to exhibit a special sample to the England index printed in Wild chicken populations in England, 1970 to 2021. One cause for this distinction is species composition. Some species breed solely in Scotland whereas others are extra widespread however have the majority of their populations in northern elements of the British Isles, and there could also be inadequate information to generate an England-only development. In addition, developments for some species could differ between the two international locations.

For extra details about the proof for this indicator, see the proof assertion Annex 1.06 Evidence Statement for C5d Seabirds.

6. Wintering waterbird populations within the UK

Chapter 6 has not been up to date as information assortment in the course of the winter season of 2020/2021 was affected by COVID-19 restrictions.

Trend description

The time period waterbird is used to explain all birds that inhabit or rely upon water; this chapter is about waterbirds that over-winter within the UK, a few of which additionally breed right here. Not all the wintering waterbirds on this chapter are included within the all breeding birds index, solely these which additionally breed within the UK and for which breeding developments can be found. Wintering populations usually originate largely from breeding populations outdoors the UK and therefore they characterize utterly completely different populations. In the related data sets published alongside this update for a list of birds in each group, those species that overlap are included under both, using the breeding population trend for the all-species indicator and the wintering population trend for the Wintering Waterbird Indicator.

In the winter of 2019/2020, the wintering waterbird index was significantly (86%) higher than in 1975/1976. The index peaked in 1996, and has largely declined since, with the smoothed index falling by 5% between 2013/2014 and 2018/2019, a short-term change considered to be significant.

Since 1975/1976, 44% of the 46 species in the indicator increased, 43% showed little change and 13% declined.

Over the short-term period between the winters of 2013/2014 and 2018/2019, 28% of species increased, 26% showed little change, and 46% declined.

Figure 6.1: Wintering waterbirds in the UK, 1975/1976 to 2019/2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust (WWT), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 6.1

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Figure 6.2: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for wintering waterbirds within the UK, 1975/1976 to 2018/2019

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust (WWT), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 6.2

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Notes for Figures 6.1 and 6.2:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 46 species of wintering waterbird of which 27 are wildfowl species and 15 are wader species.
• Figure 6.1 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and smoothed development (stable line). Data from wintering waterbirds monitoring schemes are primarily based largely on full counts at colonies or at wetland and coastal websites of markedly various measurement. This signifies that bootstrapping strategies can’t be utilized reliably and therefore developments for these teams are at the moment introduced with out confidence intervals.
• The variety of species in every sub indicator don’t sum to the quantity within the all-species indicator as a result of 4 species are included in all wintering waterbirds however are neither wildfowl nor wader. These are 2 grebes (little and great-crested), one rail species (coot) and cormorant. These are in 3 completely different taxonomic teams, none giant sufficient to warrant a separate indicator.
• Figure 6.2 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 6.2 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Factors affecting wintering wetland chicken populations

Populations of wintering wetland birds are affected by a spread of things together with circumstances within the excessive latitude international locations the place they breed, with breeding productiveness growing for species together with black-tailed godwit however reducing for others akin to Greenland white-fronted geese. There is nice proof of a robust local weather change influence on the indicator in recent years, with milder winters resulting in the wintering ranges of some species, akin to ringed plovers, more and more shifting away from the UK. In addition, native adjustments, akin to wetland creation and adjustments in agricultural administration, have had an influence on waterbird populations throughout the UK.

For extra details about the proof for this indicator, see the proof assertion Annex 1.07 Evidence Statement for C5e Wintering Waterbirds.

Species breakdown

There are 46 species, races and populations of chicken included within the wintering waterbird indicator. These could be cut up into subcategories of wildfowl (geese, geese and swans) and waders (sandpipers, plovers and their shut family) which show barely completely different developments. Overall, the smoothed wildfowl index has greater than doubled (118% enhance) and the wader index has elevated by 50% since 1975/1976. However, each peaked within the late Nineteen Nineties and have declined subsequently; between 2013/2014 and 2018/2019, the smoothed indices for each wildfowl and waders declined by 5%, which though not a big decline, is on the borderline of being important.

Wildfowl

Since the winter of 1975/1976, 48% of the wildfowl species elevated, 33% confirmed little change and 19% declined, with most of those species declining weakly. Long-term decreases have been within the indices for the Bewick’s swan, scaup, European white-fronted goose, pochard and eider which declined by 71%, 62%, 60%, 57% and 39% respectively. Four of the 13 wildfowl species exhibiting the strongest will increase are: the British/Irish greylag goose, gadwall, whooper swan and Svalbard light-bellied Brent goose. The British/Irish greylag goose and gadwall are estimated to be growing in wintering numbers by almost 40-fold and 16-fold respectively. Wintering numbers of each whooper swan and Svalbard light-bellied Brent goose are estimated to have elevated 10-fold.

Between the winters of 2013/2014 and 2018/2019, 33% of the wildfowl species elevated, 22% confirmed little change and 44% declined. Notable decreases have been within the indices for the Bewick’s swan, scaup, pochard and red-breasted merganser which all confirmed robust declines, of 60%, 27%, 18% and 17% respectively. Three of the 9 wildfowl species exhibiting the strongest will increase are: the pink-footed goose, whooper swan and shoveler, growing by 31%, 17% and 15% respectively.

Waders

Since the winter of 1975/1976, 33% of the wader species elevated, 60% confirmed little change and seven% declined. The indices for avocet and black-tailed godwit confirmed the strongest will increase, and wintering numbers of those 2 species are actually greater than 8 occasions what they was within the late Nineteen Eighties and mid Nineteen Seventies (avocet is simply included within the indicator since 1989/1990). Dunlin have proven the steepest decline, declining by 53% for the reason that winter of 1975/1976, and wintering numbers of ringed plover are actually 36% decrease.

Between the winters of 2013/2014 and 2018/2019, 13% of the wader species elevated, 33% confirmed little change and 53% declined. The indices for each bar-tailed godwit and curlew declined strongly by 21% and 17% respectively within the quick time period. The solely 2 wader species to extend in recent years are: ringed plover by 10% and avocet by 9%.

7. Upland chicken populations within the UK

Experimental statistics are outlined by the Government Statistical Service (2019) as a subset of newly developed or modern official statistics which can be present process analysis. Experimental statistics are developed below the steerage of the Head of Profession for Statistics. They are printed to contain customers and stakeholders at an early stage in assessing their suitability and high quality. Feedback gathered will inform whether or not the upland chicken indicator will turn out to be official statistics.

The upland chicken indicator is being printed for the very first time as an experimental statistic. The crew would welcome suggestions on how helpful this indicator is and on how consultant the info is to be used as an upland chicken indicator by way of [email protected]. As the Wild Birds publication gathers habitat information from farmland, woodland, wetland and seabird; an upland chicken indicator might complement the suite of untamed chicken indicators see the latest supporting material section for the Upland Report on BTO’s ‘Bird Indicators’ web page.

Trend description

The upland areas within the UK are wild and remoted offering the best open habitat for waders to breed or forage.

Due to its heavy reliance of the Breeding Bird Survey launched in 1994, in addition to related nationwide single species surveys, this indicator covers the interval 1994 to 2021.

In 2021, the UK upland chicken index was 8% decrease, considerably, than in 1994. Between 2015 and 2020, the upland chicken smoothed index declined by 4%.

Since 1994, 9% of the 32 upland species elevated, 53% confirmed little change and 38% declined.

Between 2015 and 2020, 27% of the 26 upland species elevated, 23% confirmed little change and half of the upland species decreased. Short-term developments will not be accessible for six of the specialist upland species.

Figure 7.1: Upland birds within the UK, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 7.2: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for upland birds within the UK, 1994 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 7.2

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Notes for Figures 7.1 and seven.2:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 32 species of upland birds.
• Figure 7.1 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 7.2 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 7.2 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Factors affecting upland birds

Upland birds are susceptible to various pressures contributing to the sample of total decline, significantly among the many upland specialists. UK uplands have a protracted historical past of intensive sheep grazing, sport administration and industrial afforestation. Reviews of causes of change have recognized adjustments in grazing stress, forest growth, particularly by non-native conifers, site-based predator management and local weather change results akin to droughts, as a few of the main pressures for open-nesting moorland species whereas upland passerines are affected by reductions in vegetation construction and composition. Raptors have benefitted from diminished persecution though this nonetheless stays a risk. The total stability in generalist species could replicate a stability between long run destructive impacts of land use adjustments and advantages of local weather change as extra adaptable species are capable of colonise new areas and enhance in abundance.

Species breakdown

The 32 species of chicken included within the ‘all upland bird index’ could be cut up into 3 classes for producing sub-indicators. The indicator for Upland Specialist birds is comprised of the inhabitants developments for 15 species attribute of and located solely in upland, usually open moorland habitats. The indicator for Upland Riparian species is comprised of the inhabitants developments for 4 species strongly related to upland rivers and streams. The indicator for Upland Generalist birds is comprised of the inhabitants developments for 13 species (for instance, Wren, Skylark, Carrion Crow) that are widespread and infrequently widespread in uplands but in addition present in different habitats akin to lowland farms or woodland. For these species, the inhabitants developments used are derived solely from surveys in upland habitat.

Between 1994 and 2021, the upland specialists index declined by 10%, the upland generalists declined by 4% and the upland riparian index declined by 12%. The smoothed development reveals a decline of 15% for specialists, 7% for generalists and 12% for riparian birds (see determine 7.3).

Figure 7.3: Sub-indicators for upland birds within the UK, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 7.3

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Notes about Figure 7.3:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 32 species of upland chicken of which 15 species are upland specialist birds, 13 species are upland generalist birds and 4 species are upland riparian birds.
• Figure 7.3 reveals the unsmoothed for all upland birds, upland riparian birds, upland specialist birds and upland generalist birds (dashed strains).

Upland specialist birds

In 2021, the unsmoothed upland specialist index was 10% decrease than 1994. Between 2015 and 2020 the smoothed index was 3% decrease.

Since 1994, 60% of the 15 upland specialist species confirmed little change and 40% declined. Numbers of whinchat and dotterel in upland habitats have declined strongly by 54% and 47% respectively.

Between 2015 and 2020, 11% of the 9 upland specialist species elevated, 44% confirmed little change and 44% declined (most exhibiting weak declines). Raven numbers have elevated strongly by 11% on this short-term interval. Short-term developments will not be accessible for six of the specialist upland species.

Figure 7.4: Upland specialist birds within the UK, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 7.5: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for upland specialist birds within the UK, 1994 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 7.5

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Notes for Figures 7.4 and seven.5:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 15 species of upland specialist birds.
• Figure 7.4 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 7.5 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 7.5 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Upland generalist birds

In 2021, the unsmoothed upland generalist index was 4% decrease than 1994. Between 2015 and 2020 the smoothed index was additionally 4% decrease.

Since 1994, 23% of the 13 upland generalist species elevated, 38% confirmed little change and 38% declined. Numbers of purple kite and stonechat elevated 4- and 3-fold respectively. Whereas numbers of each peregrine and redshank declined strongly by 81% and 58% respectively since 1994.

Between 2015 and 2020, 38% of the 13 upland generalist species elevated, 15% confirmed little change and 46% declined. Numbers of each purple kite and stonechat elevated strongly within the short-term mirroring their long-term development. Numbers of peregrine, pied wagtail and hooded crow have all declined strongly within the quick time period: peregrine exhibiting the strongest decline of 59% between 2015 and 2020.

Figure 7.6: Upland generalist birds within the UK, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 7.7: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for upland generalist birds within the UK, 1994 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 7.7

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Notes for Figures 7.6 and seven.7:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 13 species of upland generalist birds.
• Figure 7.6 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 7.7 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 7.7 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Upland riparian birds

In 2021, the unsmoothed upland riparian birds index was 12% decrease than in 1994. Between 2015 and 2020 the smoothed index was 5% decrease.

Since 1994, 3 of the 4 upland riparian species confirmed little change and 1 species confirmed a small decline.

Between 2015 and 2020, one of many 4 upland riparian species elevated and elevated strongly: goosander. And the remaining 3 species declined with each the widespread sandpiper and dipper declining strongly by 14% and 12% respectively within the quick time period.

Figure 7.8: Upland riparian birds within the UK, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 7.9: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species developments for upland riparian birds within the UK, 1994 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 7.9

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Notes for Figures 7.8 and seven.9:

• This indicator contains particular person measures for 4 species of upland riparian birds.
• Figure 7.8 reveals the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (stable line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 7.9 reveals the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically important enhance (robust or weak enhance), a statistically important lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically important change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 7.9 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Main notes: methodological element, limitations of the symptoms and additional info

1. The census sources present a sign of the common annual fee of change between censuses for some species, and that is assumed to use to every 12 months between censuses

2. More details about particular person species developments, together with pictures and background to the adjustments in inhabitants can be found by way of the BTO website. Some regional evaluation can also be printed as a part of the Breeding Bird Survey, together with for different constituent international locations of the UK. More details about the State of UK birds could be accessed via the RSPB web site. Details on the monitoring of scarce and uncommon breeding birds, together with annual stories, could be discovered on the web site of the Rare Breeding Birds Panel.

3. More info on how a smoothed development was produced when a 12 months of knowledge is lacking is within the BTO Research Report ‘Production of smoothed population trends when a year of data is missing’ on BTO’s ‘Bird Indicators’ web page.

4. For extra info on the Upland Indicator, see BTO Research Report ‘Upland Indicator Report’ on BTO’s ‘Bird Indicators’ web page.

5. The indices cowl birds which can be native to the UK, excluding uncommon (lower than 500 breeding pairs) and launched species. The indices painting the annual adjustments in abundance. Within the indices, every species is given equal weighting, and the general index is the geometric imply of the person species indices. Individual species populations throughout the index could also be growing or reducing, no matter the general index developments. Species indices are derived by modelling depend information and estimates are revised when new information or improved methodologies are developed and utilized retrospectively to earlier years.

6. The indices are thought-about to present dependable medium to long-term developments, however robust reliance shouldn’t be hooked up to quick time period adjustments from 12 months to 12 months.

7. The particular person species included inside every indicator are given within the related information units printed alongside this update for a listing of birds in every group.

8. Smoothing is a regular process within the technology and reporting of bird population trends. The smoothing methodology entails the applying of a skinny plate smoothing spline to take away the short-term peaks and troughs attributable to climate results and any between 12 months sampling error. Research by the BTO and RSPB additional developed this process to allow the manufacturing of an indicator primarily based on smoothed particular person species’ indices.

9. Bootstrapping, a regular statistical method, is used to calculate 95% confidence intervals within the indicators and in change over any specified interval. The width of the arrogance interval for a given indicator is influenced by the variety of species in that indicator and the precision of the person species developments that make up that indicator. The precision of developments varies between species; that is true even for species for which developments come from the identical supply, as a result of variation in pattern measurement. Therefore, the scale of confidence intervals varies amongst habitat indicators.

10. For the farmland chicken index, it ought to be famous that though 20 species have been initially chosen for the index, a dependable annual index shouldn’t be accessible for barn owl, in order that species is excluded.

11. Details of agri-environmental schemes designed to enhance environmental administration in farming could be discovered by way of the next internet hyperlinks: