Of course, there is some truth to the reports: Richard Griffiths, chief executive of the British Poultry Council, says that of the 1.3 million free-range turkeys that had been produced for Christmas 2022, around 600,000 have died from avian flu or been culled. If a single case is detected, every bird on that farm must be killed; an awful fate to befall any farmer.
The Ginger Pig, one of London’s leading independent butchers, faced a cull of its poultry farms earlier this year. “[We] lost everything: turkeys, geese, ducks – 15,000 birds, culled within five days,” says Lynsey Coughlan, operations director. As a result, anyone looking to buy a bird from Ginger Pig this year will have to buy something else or go elsewhere.
“It’s a commercial challenge because the money we make in this, our busiest period, needs to see us through [the] summer months when things are quieter.” They will continue to sell other options for Christmas centrepieces but it is “devastating” for the farmers impacted says Coughlan.
For such a high-profile butcher to have no birds gives some measure of how bad things are for the affected farmers – but that is not to say there are no turkeys whatsoever. And the panicked response of consumers desperate to buy any bird ahead of the holiday season has given free-range turkey farmers that haven’t had an avian flu outbreak cause for concern.
Simple maths dictates that if less than half of the turkeys have been lost, then more than half remain for Christmas feasting. Those farmers lucky enough to avoid losing their flock to the flu are slaughtering them now, ready for Christmas. Some farmers took advantage of DEFRA’s emergency derogation (enabling retailers to sell ‘fresh-from-frozen’ turkeys this year) and slaughtered and froze theirs in early November. They’ll be brought up to fresh temperature before sale with the vital caveat to consumers that they cannot be frozen again.
In short, while many have been lost, there are fresh free-range turkeys that need buying and eating. They might not be as readily available, but the default response should not be to buy the first frozen bird you see in the supermarket – especially as the farmers left need the sales.
“It’s been very unhelpful,” says Paul White of Paul’s Turkeys – a farmer of free range, heritage breed turkeys in the Pennines – of the coverage of the situation and what he claims to be its perpetration by the supermarkets, “it’s driven frozen sales massively. Even people who normally buy from independent suppliers are thinking, ‘we won’t be able to do that this year’, and so are picking up turkeys in the frozen section of the supermarket to make sure they have one. And that is understandable.”
The knock-on effect, however, is that sales of fresh turkeys from independent farmers have been slowing down. “Our sales are way down because of that scaremongering,” White told Lancslive last week. “It’s driving people to say, ‘I will get a frozen one and stick it in the freezer’. The unintended consequences are that it’s cancelled out the free-range market entirely.”
Since his story has been picked up, his sales have recovered – “but until all this coverage we sold far less than usually would,” he tells i. It’s a story echoed by Aylesbury Ducks and Galileo Farm, who supply London’s Farmers Markets. “It has been very slow this year, as we believe most have brought very cheap frozen turkeys from supermarkets.”
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Sixth-generation farmer George Ford, who sells to consumers directly, has also noticed a dip in sales. “Our sales have been slower. I think also people have been hesitant in case we can’t fulfil the orders, as the risk has been high. But what we have is in the fridge now. It’s there. There are lots of small scale suppliers that have not been affected directly, which people should approach before panicking and buying frozen birds”.
Cheryl Cohen, behind London Farmers Markets, agrees. “[Our farmers] are constantly checking their birds [for flu], so you can imagine the stress they’re under. This year has been extremely challenging with increased costs for all farmers, our poultry farmers are facing the extra cost of protecting their birds from avian flu and now the rumour that there’s no turkeys left. Don’t believe the hype about no turkeys; talk to our farmers and order direct from them.”
Richard Smith, farms director at Daylesford, describes his fellow free-range farmers as having been in the lap of the gods when it comes to contracting avian flu: all farms are susceptible. His farm has been safer, he believes, because it is far away from the coast where migratory birds – who are the source of the disease – land first. “The majority of affected farms are on the east coast – but this year it does seem to be so random.”
Coughlan adds that “it is most affecting farmers who are doing things right”. “They aren’t industrial. They don’t have concrete floors they can spray with chemical. These are free range farms, and you cannot clean grass”. Rumours among farmers abound of retailers buying turkey from abroad, and passing the cuts off as British or free range, even though they are neither. There are also concerns that fresh-from-frozen might confuse some customers – refreezing these would be a bad idea – and that there will be a drop in meat to carcass ratio on account of their being slaughtered early and therefore having less time to grow.
Supermarkets remain confident of having at least some fresh birds in store, however. Jake Pickering, Waitrose’s senior agricultural manager says: “We’ve currently got good availability of our high-welfare turkeys, but advise customers to order in advance”. Elsewhere, Morrisons says it is “confident [it] can meet customer demand”. Tesco also will have fresh turkeys available from 19 December it confirmed and that they are working closely with farmers and suppliers.
The biggest concern now is next Christmas, when some devastated poultry farmers won’t go back into business. “Are farmers going to be put off from free range organic farming, because of the exposure? Will the poults [parent flock] be there?” says Smith of Daylesford.
“This year, if you want a high welfare, organic, free range bird, you should be able to get one so long as you get on it. But it’s next year that worries me”.
