7 key faces to look at within the Polish election – POLITICO

Poland’s October 15 basic election appears to be like so much like a feud between two grizzled political veterans.

Two males — Jarosław Kaczyński, chief of the ruling right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) occasion, and Donald Tusk, head of the opposition Civic Platform occasion — have dominated Polish politics for 20 years.

But this 12 months they’ll should take care of different gamers in the event that they wish to rule. POLITICO’s Poll of Polls exhibits that no occasion has sufficient help to win an outright majority in parliament, that means they’ll want the help of smaller teams just like the centrist Third Way or the far-right Confederation — in addition to the loyalty of their very own occasion members, which isn’t at all times a given.

Here are seven faces that matter in Polish politics:

Jarosław Kaczyński: The Puppet Master

The 70-year-old chief of PiS can also be Poland’s de facto ruler.

A minor determine within the anti-communist motion of the Nineteen Eighties, Kaczyński climbed the political ladder as an MP within the Nineteen Nineties earlier than founding PiS in 2001 along with his twin brother, Lech, who was elected president and died in 2010 when his authorities aircraft crashed in Smolensk, Russia.

Kaczyński guidelines PiS with an iron hand — each huge choice goes via his workplace in a battered building close to central Warsaw. It’s additionally the pilgrimage web site for prime ministers and even President Andrzej Duda to point out fealty to the person who actually runs Poland.

He has lengthy held a grudge over Poland’s post-1989 transformation following the top of communism, and his long-running agenda is to dramatically reshape the nation’s courts, media and different establishments whereas creating new elites depending on his occasion’s favor.

If PiS hangs on to energy, anticipate extra of the identical from the cat-loving bachelor whose pet hate is Donald Tusk.

Donald Tusk: The Battered Savior

A centrist liberal with a pro-European agenda, the 66-year-old Tusk co-founded Civic Platform in 2001, months earlier than the Kaczyński brothers launched PiS.

He grew to become prime minister in 2007 after Civic Platform dethroned a short-lived PiS authorities. He dominated Polish politics earlier than decamping to Brussels to turn into European Council president in 2014. Without his charisma and political savvy, the occasion he left behind collapsed, opening the way in which for PiS to win energy in 2015.

With Civic Platform plummeting within the polls, Tusk returned to Poland in 2021 to attempt to restore his occasion to its former glory and … save the EU.

Like Kaczyński, he’s additionally bought a big hostile voters who detests him — however his presence has reinvigorated the opposition. No different politician may summon the large march via Warsaw on October 1.

Kaczyński sees him as the best menace to his grip on energy, which is why the federal government and the state-controlled media have unleashed streams of vitriol in opposition to Tusk. The fundamental accusation is that he’s not a loyal Pole, however somewhat is working with Berlin, faceless Eurocrats in Brussels and even the Kremlin to destroy Poland’s independence.

Mateusz Morawiecki: The Banker

Kaczyński’s present alternative for prime minister, the 55-year-old Morawiecki began out within the monetary sector, making hundreds of thousands in banking earlier than becoming a member of … Tusk’s cupboard as an financial adviser in 2010.

He later switched to PiS and have become prime minister in 2017, as a younger and extra dynamic different to the outgoing Beata Szydło. With a powerful command of English (a rarity in PiS’s ranks) and a background in finance and EU legislation (he co-authored the primary Polish-language textbook on the topic), the occasion hoped he would tone down the battle with Brussels and patch up its picture overseas.

Instead, below Morawiecki’s management, Poland has seen a dramatic decline within the rule of legislation, culminating in its ongoing authorized battle with the EU, and a slide towards authoritarianism.

Morawiecki’s background makes him a little bit of an outsider in PiS — the place long-term loyalty to Kaczyński is the primary forex — and there are frequent rumors that he will probably be defenestrated by somebody nearer to the boss. Expect that gossip to resurface if PiS wins the election.

Rafał Trzaskowski: The Princeling

The 51-year-old mayor of Warsaw, Trzaskowski has lengthy been touted as the way forward for the Civic Platform and — ought to Tusk ever retire — its subsequent chief. Eloquent, charismatic and a champion of European values, he’s constructed a coalition with different jap EU capitals to problem the autocratic tendencies of their nationwide governments.

Popular amongst Civic Platform’s younger voters, Trzaskowski got here inside inches of defeating incumbent PiS-backed President Duda within the 2020 presidential election. He doesn’t at all times see eye-to-eye with Tusk, however could possibly be a attainable mediator between Civic Platform and the smaller opposition teams wanted to kind a parliamentary majority.

For now, he has dominated out combating Tusk for the job of prime minister if Civic Platform wins the election.

Zbigniew Ziobro: The Sheriff

Ziobro, 53, is without doubt one of the few politicians within the nation who has crossed Kaczyński and survived politically. He was as soon as seen as Kaczyński’s successor, however the two fell out and Ziobro stop PiS to kind his personal far-right occasion, United Poland.

Kaczyński hasn’t forgiven him and readmitted him to PiS, however the Law and Justice chief fears rivals on the political proper, so has allowed Ziobro and different United Poland candidates onto PiS’s electoral lists.

As justice minister, Ziobro has been in control of Kaczyński’s most vital political effort: the overhaul of what the federal government describes because the corrupt and inept judiciary. That’s seen by the EU as an try to exert political management over the courts — making Ziobro a nasty boy for the European Commission.

But Ziobro’s energy — he’s each justice minister and chief prosecutor in a single — and his management of investigators who may carry down political rivals, makes him a key face in any new PiS-led authorities.

Sławomir Mentzen: The Disruptor

At 36, Mentzen has already proven his capability to upend political calculations.

A tax marketing consultant, entrepreneur (he has his personal model of beer) and self-described libertarian, Mentzen leads Confederation — a grouping of smaller far-right outfits seen as potential kingmakers within the post-election scramble for energy. Although the occasion’s management detests the welfare state created by PiS, there may be discuss of Mentzen getting into a coalition with Kaczyński in return for a profitable position within the authorities.

The occasion, nonetheless, carries numerous baggage. During the 2019 election to the European Parliament, Mentzen laid out a five-point program: “We don’t want Jews, homosexuals, abortion, taxes and the European Union.”

Szymon Hołownia: The Spoiler

Mentzen could have his personal model of beer, however the 47-year-old Hołownia has gone additional, naming a whole occasion after himself.

Promising to interrupt the 20-year Tusk-Kaczyński duopoly, the previous TV presenter launched the centrist Szymon Hołownia’s Poland 2050 motion on the again of his 2020 presidential bid, the place he completed third behind Duda and Trzaskowski.

Wooed by Tusk to affix his catch-all political alliance, the Civic Coalition, Hołownia as a substitute opted for an unlikely political marriage with the agrarian Polish People’s Party. Dubbed The Third Way, the 2 events have struggled to discover a coherent message, and Hołownia’s private grievances with Tusk haven’t helped their probabilities.

The Third Way must get at the very least 8 p.c of the vote to safe seats in parliament; decrease than that and people votes find yourself serving to the biggest events — and can be key to PiS taking sufficient seats to rule alone.