Ukraine war: Satellite images reveal Russian defences prior to significant attack

A beach resort bristling with strongholds. A significant roadway lined with anti-tank ditches. Satellite analysis by BBC Verify has actually revealed a few of the comprehensive defences constructed by Russia as it gets ready for a significant Ukrainian counter-attack.

After months of stalemate, the anticipated attack is most likely to be an essential test for Ukraine as it looks for to show it can attain substantial battleground gains with the weapons it has actually received from the West.

By taking a look at numerous satellite images, the BBC has actually determined some bottom lines in the substantial build-up of trenches and other strongholds in southern Ukraine given that October.

These 4 areas provide an insight into what Russia gets out of the counter-offensive, and what defences Ukrainian forces may experience.

Seized by Russia in 2014, Crimea was previously understood for its beach resorts.

Now, rather of sun loungers and parasols, the shoreline going for 15 miles (25km) is cluttered with defence structures set up by Russian soldiers.

The image listed below programs the just open sandy beach on the west coast without natural defences such as cliffs or hills.

Firstly, there are “dragon’s teeth” along the coast: pyramid-shaped blocks of concrete, created to obstruct the course of tanks and other military automobiles.

Behind them is a line of trenches, supplying cover from inbound attacks. Several bunkers can likewise be identified along the trenches.

Stacks of wood, digging devices and shops of dragon’s teeth along the coast recommend building work was still in development when the image was taken in March.

Some military specialists recommend the defences are most likely to be a safety measure, instead of an indication that Russia anticipates to protect a seaborne attack, given that Ukraine has little marine capability.

Intelligence expert Layla Guest says: “The strongholds are most likely in location to discourage any strong Ukrainian operation to attack Crimea by means of the sea instead of on land.”

BBC Verify has actually had the ability to determine other crucial stronghold websites by determining private trench areas from videos on social networks.

Once a precise area was found it was then possible to trace a whole trench network utilizing satellite images.

The little city of Tokmak rests on a crucial path in the south-east of the nation that Ukrainian forces might wish to utilize to cut off Crimea from other Russian-held areas.

There have actually been reports that Ukrainian civilians have actually been vacated in order to turn the city into a military fortress. This would supply soldiers with access to materials and a base to pull back to.

The satellite image above programs that a network of trenches in 2 lines has actually been dug north of Tokmak – the instructions Ukraine would need to assault from.

Behind these trenches is a more ring of strongholds around the city, with 3 layers of defences that can be seen definitely in this close-up satellite image.

The top of the satellite image reveals an anti-tank ditch. These are generally a minimum of 2.5m deep and created to trap any opponent tanks that try to cross.

Behind the ditch are numerous rows of dragon’s teeth and another trench network.

But Ukrainian forces are most likely to deal with additional traps.

It’s extremely most likely that mines have actually likewise been concealed in between Tokmak’s 3 defence lines, says Mark Cancian from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Minefields are a basic part of every defence, and the Russians have actually utilized them thoroughly throughout the war.

“Here they will be big and much better hidden, decreasing Ukrainian attacks so that other battle aspects, like weapons and infantry, can strike the assaulting forces.”

BBC Verify has actually likewise found 3 other towns near Tokmak have actually been likewise strengthened.

A line of anti-tank ditches and trenches now runs together with a 22-mile (35km) stretch of the E105 primary highway, west of Tokmak.

The E105 is tactically crucial, linking Russian-held Melitopol in the south with the northern city of Kharkiv, held by Ukraine. The roadway likewise goes through the Zaporizhzhia area, which might be the target of a Ukrainian counter-offensive.

The side that manages the E105 can quickly move soldiers around the area.

If Ukrainian forces try to utilize this roadway, Russia will likely target it with heavy weapons from behind their defences. Russia’s position is likewise in series of another neighboring roadway – the T401 – which might likewise be targeted.

“The Russians are fretted about the just recently constructed Ukrainian armour systems. If these systems can get on a primary highway, they can move really rapidly,” says Mr Cancian.

“The Russian defences goal to press them off the roadways and for that reason slow them down.”

The port of Mariupol has a tactical position in between the Russian-inhabited areas in the east and Crimea in the south. It likewise ended up being a sign of resistance to intrusion when a hard-core of fighters claimed months as the city was besieged.

Given Russia anticipates Ukraine to attempt to retake it, BBC Verify chose to take a look at the area surrounding the city – resulting in the discovery of a collection of circular trenches.

Located near the little town of Rivnopil about 34 miles (55km) north of Mariupol, each circular trench has a mound of soil in the middle, potentially either to safeguard weapons or to keep weapons steady.

Meanwhile, the circular trenches permit soldiers to hide and to move the weapons so it can intend in any instructions.

It reveals that Russia is preparing to protect locations of open ground (without natural defense from hills and rivers) together with their broader trench network.

But some experts note that Ukrainian forces can utilize comparable satellite images and drone security to determine and bypass a number of these defences.

Alexander Lord from tactical advisory company Sibylline Ltd says: “The Russians will for that reason likely try to funnel Ukrainian forces down particular paths which are greatly mined and pre-targeted by Russian weapons.”

Satellite images reveal apparent defences – however that may all become part of Russia’s strategy.

Additional reporting by Tom Spencer