- By Jonathan Head
- South East Asia reporter
Election posters in Bangkok – the vote provides Thailand with a huge option about its future
For the previous couple of weeks an irresistibly appealing tune has actually been playing in areas throughout Thailand, from campaign trucks sent by the Pheu Thai celebration, the frontrunner in this Sunday’s basic election.
“A landslide for Pheu Thai, in all locations, so the lives of individuals can be much better,” it goes, advising citizens to provide it a thumping success.
That Pheu Thai (For Thais) is up until now ahead of all its competitors is impressive. This is in spite of all the efforts made over the previous 17 years to damage it, and to get rid of the impact of Thaksin Shinawatra, the telecoms billionaire who established its very first version, Thai Rak Thai, in 1998.
Mr Thaksin’s federal government was deposed by a military coup in 2006, and Thai Rak Thai was liquified. He has actually been residing in exile because being prosecuted in what his family says are politically-motivated charges. A follower celebration was likewise liquified by the courts in 2008, and because year 2 of its prime ministers were disqualified.
After Mr Thaksin’s sis Yingluck won a landslide in the 2011 election, she too was disqualified by the courts, and her federal government ousted by a 2nd coup. She is likewise residing in exile.
At the last election in 2019 Pheu Thai won even more seats than any other celebration, however was avoided from forming a federal government.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra says the nation has to do with more than coups
Now the surveys reveal Pheu Thai on track when again for success. The Shinawatra family has actually advanced Thaksin’s youngest child Paetongtarn to lead the campaign, which she has actually done even in the last phases of pregnancy, generating appreciation and compassion.
It has when again run a slick, well-marketed campaign, making a series of appealing deals to the electorate, from a considerable boost in the base pay, to a pledge of a 10,000 baht ($300; £240) digital wallet for every single grownup to be invested in your area.
“I believe after 8 years individuals desire much better politics, much better options for the nation than simply coup d’etats,” Paetongtarn informed the BBC. “They are looking for policies that will help their lives.”
Image source, Getty Images
Paetongtarn had an infant on 1 May – and was back marketing within days
“For several years no other political force has actually had the ability to provide an option to Pheu Thai, in regards to policy offerings, in regards to charm, in having the ability to interact straight with individuals”, says Siripan Nogsuan Sawasdee, a political researcher at Chulalongkorn University, who has actually been making a research study of the celebration’s appeal.
“And due to the fact that the last coup d’etat led to 2 military-backed federal governments which came a cropper in financial efficiency and in handling the Covid pandemic, the appeal of its primary challenger Pheu Thai stays high.”
Ms Siripan recognizes what she calls the 3 Ps as the secret to political success in Thailand; policies, characters and patronage networks, and political worths.
Pheu Thai has actually constantly been really strong on the very first. Thai Rak Thai was a pioneer in this region in running a modern, manifesto-based campaign in its first election campaign in 2001. It offered policies like universal healthcare and village-based micro-credit schemes which directly benefitted rural and low-income communities. It won the Shinawatra family what has actually proved to be unbreakable loyalty from some of Thailand’s largest vote banks.
On the second, Pheu Thai has built up an extensive network of local power-brokers, who are very influential in maintaining its popularity and getting the vote out. By contrast the two main conservative parties, formed by the last coup-leader Prayuth Chan-ocha and his allies, are relatively new, and do not have such strong local networks.
On the third, Pheu Thai has constantly successfully portrayed itself both as the party which looks after little people, and which champions democracy, of governments through elections. And that is its main pitch today. If you want an end to conservative, military-backed rule, it says, we are your best choice.
But this time it is being outflanked on political values by a more radical and youthful party, Move Forward, which is calling for profound changes to Thailand’s power structures.
It wants to stop the military from intervening in politics, to limit its budget, end conscription, and even talks about making the monarchy more accountable. It has pledged never to form a coalition with one of the military-aligned parties, showing up Pheu Thai’s evasiveness on this issue.
Some observers believe Move Forward’s growing popularity could eat into Pheu Thai’s votes, although the younger party’s support is spread across the country, rather than in certain areas, disadvantaging it in a system where 80% of the seats are elected on a very first-past-the-post basis.
Pheu Thai is losing its policy edge too, as nearly every main party is now making a crowd-pleasing financial offering to the voters, neutralising the populist appeal that has actually been the key to Pheu Thai’s long run of election wins.
“Especially for the younger generation, Thaksin’s legacy of policy delivery in the past does not resonate,” says Siripan from Chulalaongkorn. “And don’t forget there will be four million first-time voters in this election. Pheu Thai’s image as the default anti-military party is facing a real challenge from Move Forward.
“But I still believe Pheu Thai will win by a large margin. It still has the 2nd P, the patronage networks through its candidates in the north and north-east, where Move Forward, as the newer party, has actually not established these kinds of connections.”
If the predictions of the opinion polls hold, and both Pheu Thai and Move Forward perform well enough to ensure they have a substantial majority of the 500 seats in the lower house, the big question is whether they will be allowed to form a government.
The military-drafted constitution allows 250 senators, all appointed by the junta that seized power in 2014, to join the vote on the choice of the next prime minister. The pliant courts could once again be deployed to dissolve one or both of the reformist parties.
Thailand will then be confronted with a choice. Should it stick to the old, authoritarian playbook, which sees election results as optional, rather than essential factors in who holds power?
Or should it break out of the cycle of coups, party dissolutions and street violence which have plagued the country for 2 decades?
