By Professor Will Jennings, Sky News elections analyst, and Joely Santa Cruz, information journalist
From Mondeo Man to Worcester Woman – at each basic election politicians, pollsters and pundits search to determine the “key goal voter” who will ship victory.
Of course, the truth is extra advanced.
Clearly, Tony Blair wasn’t elected in 1997 solely because of males who drove Ford Mondeos. Not each girl in Worcester voted for Thatcher, then Blair and Cameron. And generally there is a nationwide wave because the nation swings from one get together to a different.
So, is there a key goal voter in 2024 that may save Rishi Sunak from defeat or ship Sir Keir Starmer a majority?
If voters switched uniformly from Conservative to Labour in 2024, with others unchanged, then a swing of 12.7 proportion factors would see Labour acquire the seats wanted to win a majority, 117 of those beneficial properties coming instantly from the Conservatives.
But there are three key teams of constituencies to think about. Those that cost the Tories their majority, people who see Labour turn out to be the most important get together and the ultimate set that ship Labour outright victory.
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