As Super Tuesday makes an historic rematch all however official, voters are evaluating not simply two presidents, however two presidencies.
And proper now former President Donald Trump emerges from that comparability because the frontrunner. He leads President Biden by 4 factors nationally, his largest result in date. Here’s why:
Voters recall the economic system below Trump extra fondly than they fee the economic system now.
While neither will get nice marks, voters as we speak look again on Trump’s presidency with comparatively higher retrospective scores than they’d fee Joe Biden’s presidency up to now.
(For the file, in 2019 folks did certainly fee the economic system properly, however views cratered in Trump’s final 12 months in workplace, throughout the pandemic.)
This is the case, even if views of as we speak’s economic system maintain inching up.
That’s not serving to Mr. Biden but, at the least not in comparison with Trump.
This is partly as a result of Mr. Biden’s insurance policies are anticipated to trigger value will increase –
And Republicans overwhelmingly say they anticipate decrease costs if Trump is elected.
This is a component of a bigger dynamic: Some of Mr. Biden’s polling deficits come from his personal Democratic base being comparatively extra essential of him. Twice as many Democrats name Biden’s presidency honest or poor than Republicans describe Trump’s presidency that approach.
More voters suppose Trump “fights for folks like them” than suppose Biden does.
More voters suppose Donald Trump has a imaginative and prescient for the nation than suppose Joe Biden does.
And then lots of the Biden marketing campaign’s arguments on Trump’s potential liabilities don’t get sufficient traction to maneuver Mr. Biden previous Trump.
Democracy
Most Americans suppose Trump did attempt to keep in workplace previous his time period, however slightly below half suppose he tried to take action illegally.
(And they’re voting overwhelmingly for Mr. Biden.)
But the remainder of the nation — together with those that suppose he tried to remain legally, would overwhelmingly return Trump to workplace.
So, Mr. Biden has no important benefit over Trump because the one who’ll maintain democracy protected.
Abortion and IVF
A majority suppose the overturning of Roe was unhealthy for the nation, however far fewer blame Trump for it.
Big majorities do suppose IVF must be authorized.
Immigration and the border
Trump has an enormous benefit on lowering the variety of migrants crossing. It’s a problem that the majority proceed to say is at the least very critical, if not a disaster.
Trump v. Biden well being
As has been the case for months, Trump is seen to have the bodily and cognitive well being to serve, extra so than Mr. Biden.
And lastly, there’s the motivations of voters and the get together bases.
“Negative” and “miserable” are voters’ mostly picked descriptions, when requested about their expectations of one other Biden-Trump marketing campaign.
Democrats, particularly, say so.
Most of Mr. Biden’s voters really feel that is an election largely about worry of what may occur; and extra of them are voting to oppose Trump than as a result of they like Mr. Biden.
Most of Trump’s voters say that is an election about hope for what may occur; extra of them are voting Trump as a result of they like him, not opposition to Mr. Biden.
And the affect of that, at the least for now, is solely this: Mr. Biden is trailing, partly, as a result of Democrats are much less more likely to say they will undoubtedly vote.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was carried out with a nationally consultant pattern of two,159 U.S. grownup residents interviewed between February 28-March 1, 2024. The pattern was weighted based on gender, age, race, and training based mostly on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, in addition to previous vote. The margin of error is ±2.8 factors.
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