Wild hen populations in England, 1970 to 2021

Use of the info

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or e-mail: [email protected]

National Statistics Designation Statement

The statistics on this launch have been designated as National Statistics. This standing implies that statistics meet the best requirements of trustworthiness, high quality and public worth, and it’s Defra’s duty to take care of compliance with these requirements. These statistics final underwent a full evaluation in opposition to the Code of Practice for Statistics in 2012. See Assessment Report 173 Statistics on Sustainability and the Environment in England and the UK. Since that evaluation by the Office for Statistics Regulation, we’ve continued to adjust to the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Responsible Statistician: Christine Holleran

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Key adjustments to the England wild hen publication

Updates for this publication are:

What we’ve not up to date on this publication:

• We had been unable to update seabirds chapter 5 as the gathering of 2020 knowledge was affected by COVID-19 restrictions and the Seabird Monitoring Programme (SMP) has lately transferred from the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) to the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO). BTO are planning to publish traits from the SMP later this 12 months.

• We had been unable to update wintering waterbirds chapter 6, as knowledge assortment through the winter season of 2020/2021 was affected by COVID-19 restrictions.

• We will now not be producing Annex A as a part of the publication which confirmed long-term and short-term traits in hen species by habitat. All the info might be out there within the knowledge units supplied alongside this publication.

Executive abstract

The mixed all-species index has proven a shallow decline since its highest stage about 45 years in the past, nonetheless, this masks appreciable flux, with some species growing and a few species lowering. Changes by habitat are summarised under; unsmoothed figures are used for comparability with the latest 12 months; and smoothed indices to the penultimate 12 months are used to evaluate change over lengthy and/or short-term traits as they scale back short-term peaks and troughs.

Figure 1: Populations of untamed birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 1

Download the data for Figure 1 in csv format

Notes about Figure 1:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 118 species of untamed birds.
• Figure 1 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.

The latest 12 months knowledge exhibits that for 2021:

• the unsmoothed all-species index in England was 8% under its 1970 worth
• the unsmoothed farmland hen index was 42% of its 1970 worth
• the unsmoothed woodland hen index was 34% under its 1970 worth
• the unsmoothed water and wetland hen index was 3% decrease than in 1975
• the unsmoothed upland hen index was 9% under its 1994 worth

The knowledge for the seabirds and the wintering waterbirds indices haven’t been up to date this 12 months, so the next traits from the 2021 publication are nonetheless present:

• the unsmoothed seabirds index was 11% increased in 2019 than its 1986 worth
• the unsmoothed wintering waterbirds index was 75% increased in 2019/2020 than in 1975/1976

Table 1a: exhibiting lengthy and short-term smoothed traits at a look for England [note 1]

Table 1b: exhibiting lengthy and short-term traits at a look for England [notes 2,3,4, and 5]

Notes for Table 1a and Table 1b:

[1] Short-term traits for upland birds can’t be assessed but attributable to further time required to switch this system.
[2] Data for the seabirds and wintering waterbirds indices solely present traits to 2018.
[3] The seabird indicator is an unsmoothed development as no smoothed development is but out there.
[4] Data for seabirds are assessed utilizing a 5% rule of thumb.
[5] Data from surveys of wintering waterbirds are primarily based largely on full counts at colonies or wetland and coastal websites of markedly various dimension. This implies that bootstrapping strategies can’t be utilized reliably and therefore traits for these teams are at the moment introduced with out confidence intervals however are assessed utilizing a 5% rule of thumb.

Introduction

Why monitor hen populations

Bird populations have lengthy been thought-about to supply a great indication of the broad state of wildlife in England. This is as a result of they occupy a variety of habitats and reply to environmental pressures that additionally function on different teams of wildlife. In addition, there are appreciable long-term knowledge on traits in hen populations, permitting for comparability between traits within the brief time period and long run. Because they’re a well-studied taxonomic group, drivers of change for birds are higher understood than for different species teams, which allow higher interpretation of any noticed adjustments. Birds even have enormous cultural significance and are extremely valued as part of the UK’s pure surroundings by most of the people. Although hen indicators can replicate the well being of the pure surroundings extra extensively, these introduced on this publication shouldn’t be utilized in isolation to deduce the standing of all different species teams.

It just isn’t practical to find out adjustments within the precise variety of birds for every species in England annually, however it’s potential and extra dependable to evaluate their standing by calculating relative change, primarily based on counts on consultant pattern plots surveyed as a part of nationwide monitoring schemes (see Main notes on the finish for extra particulars of the surveys sources used).

Trends in hen populations are utilized by coverage makers, authorities businesses and non-governmental organisations as a part of the proof base with which to evaluate the results of environmental administration, similar to agricultural practices or woodland administration, on hen populations. The traits are additionally used to evaluate the effectiveness of environmental interventions meant to handle declines, similar to agri-environment schemes focused at farmland birds.

Understanding the hen inhabitants indices

Individual hen species inhabitants traits, primarily based on rigorously designed surveys undertaken largely by volunteer consultants, are calculated as a sequence of annual indices. These relate the inhabitants in a given 12 months to a ‘baseline’ – the primary 12 months that knowledge can be found – which is given a price of 100. Thereafter, the index is expressing the inhabitants as a share of this ‘baseline’.

This annual Defra National Statistics Release presents knowledge traits as much as 2021 in populations of frequent birds (species with a inhabitants of not less than 300 breeding pairs) which are native to, and breed in, England, with traits total in addition to for 4 primary habitat teams (see related knowledge units printed alongside this update for an inventory of birds in every group). The launch additionally presents traits as much as 2019/2020 for wintering waterbirds, a few of which additionally breed within the UK and a brand new index for birds within the uplands.

The charts introduced mix particular person species indices right into a single indicator to supply an total development for every group talked about above. Using a geometrical imply – a median calculated by multiplying a set of index values and taking the nth root, the place n is the variety of index values. More info may be present in Introduction to the Wild Birds Population Indicator. The indices are thought-about to present dependable medium to long-term traits, however robust reliance shouldn’t be connected to short-term adjustments from 12 months to 12 months.

Assessing traits

Two traits are referred to within the textual content: the unsmoothed indices present year-to-year fluctuation in populations, reflecting the noticed adjustments within the survey outcomes; and smoothed traits, that are used to formally assess the statistical significance of change over time. For seabirds, there are at the moment no smoothed traits. Smoothed traits are used for each lengthy and short-term assessments as they scale back the short-term peaks and troughs ensuing from, for instance, year-to-year climate and sampling variations in addition to good or dangerous breeding seasons See analytical methods on BTO website (Fewster et al. 2000. Ecology 81: 1970 to 1984). The most recent knowledge level in smoothed traits, that’s, 2020 (see BTO Research Report on ‘Production of smoothed population trends when a year of data is missing’ on BTO’s ‘Bird Indicators’ web page) on this update, is more likely to change because of the smoothing course of following the inclusion of 2022 knowledge in subsequent 12 months’s update. As a end result, it isn’t applicable to make assessments together with this final inter-year interval. Where outcomes from the smoothed indices are quoted, that is clearly indicated.

These traits are primarily based on estimates from surveys. Smoothed traits are introduced with 95% confidence intervals (CI), that are a measure of the precision of those survey estimates: a 95% CI means customers may be 95% assured that the true worth of an indicator in a given 12 months falls throughout the confidence interval round it. The width of the boldness intervals varies between habitat indicators as a result of it’s influenced by the variety of species in every indicator and the precision of the person species traits that make up the indicator. For the indications derived from species traits that can not be statistically evaluated by this methodology (for instance, wintering waterbirds and all-species), a threshold of 5% is used to guage the importance of the change.

Throughout this launch, evaluation durations are known as:

• ‘Long-term’ – an evaluation of change for the reason that earliest date for which knowledge can be found; this varies amongst indicators and amongst particular person species.
• ‘Short-term’ – an evaluation of change over the latest 5 years for which knowledge can be found.

The knowledge units printed alongside this update present long-term and short-term assessments for every particular person hen species.

Alongside the general index, the proportion of species inside every indicator which have elevated or decreased within the long-term and within the short-term can also be proven. This relies on the common charge of annual change over the lengthy or short-term, categorised by how a lot the inhabitants would change if that annual change continued for 25 years. These thresholds are asymmetrical to symbolize symmetrical proportional change in an index, that’s, the alternative of a 50% decline is a doubling (a 100% improve), not a 50% improve. These thresholds are derived from these used within the Birds of Conservation Concern standing evaluation on the BTO web site for birds within the UK. The following bar chart illustrates how we present the proportion of species falling into every class:

The 5 classes of change are outlined as:

• robust improve: inhabitants improve of 100% or extra
• weak improve: greater than 33% however lower than 100% improve
• little change: between a 25% lower and a 33% improve
• weak decline: lower than 50% however higher than 25% lower
• robust decline: inhabitants lower of fifty% or extra

The hen inhabitants indices have been compiled at the side of the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

1. Native breeding wild hen populations in England

Trend description

In 2021, the unsmoothed all-species index in England, primarily based on the aggregated inhabitants traits of 118 breeding species, was 8% under its 1970 worth.

The indicator declined between the late Nineteen Seventies and the late Eighties, pushed largely by comparatively steep declines in woodland and farmland birds. The all-species index has since levelled off though the smoothed index exhibits a 5% lower between 2015 and 2020.

Within the index, 31% of the 118 species elevated, 36% confirmed little change and 30% declined between 1970 and 2020. It was not potential to calculate a long-term development for 3 species as a result of their knowledge sequence begin in 2005 or later.

Over the short-term interval between 2015 and 2020, 25% of species elevated, 28% confirmed little change and 47% declined.

Figure 1.1: Populations of untamed birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 1.1

Download the data for Figure 1.1 in csv format

Figure 1.2: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for wild birds in England, 1970 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 1.2

Download the data for Figure 1.2 in csv format

Notes for Figures 1.1 and 1.2

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 118 species of untamed birds.
• Figure 1.1 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 1.2 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 1.2 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

Species breakdown

The all-species index is comprised of 118 species of birds, all widespread species with populations of not less than 300 breeding pairs for which there are enough knowledge to calculate a development. Species traits inside this index fluctuate extensively, from these growing several-fold (for instance, buzzard, Cetti’s warbler, nice noticed woodpecker and collared dove) to these having declined to lower than a tenth of their 1970 numbers (for instance, turtle dove, willow tit, gray partridge, lesser redpoll, noticed flycatcher and tree sparrow). The primary patterns and drivers of change are finest thought-about by trying on the indices of species grouped by habitat under in Figure 1.3 and described in higher element within the following chapters.

Figure 1.3: Populations of untamed birds in England by habitat, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 1.3

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Notes for Figures 1.3

• Figure 1.3 exhibits the unsmoothed traits (dashed line) and the smoothed traits (strong line) for the 4 primary habitat teams of untamed birds.

2. Breeding farmland hen populations in England

Trend description

Farmland refers back to the giant proportion of England which is dedicated to agriculture and consists of arable land and pastures. Farmland additionally supplies semi-natural habitats similar to hedgerows and discipline margins that present meals and shelter to birds.

In 2021 the England farmland hen index was 42% of its 1970 worth and the smoothed index exhibits a big decline of 59% between 1970 and 2020. The majority of this decline occurred between the late Nineteen Seventies and early Eighties and was largely because of the unfavourable impression of fast adjustments in lots of farmland administration practices throughout this era. The decline has continued at a slower charge extra lately; the smoothed index decreased considerably by 5% between 2015 and 2020.

Since 1970, 21% of species confirmed a weak improve, 21% confirmed little change and 58% confirmed both a weak or robust decline.

Over the short-term interval between 2015 and 2020, 32% of species elevated, 26% confirmed little change and 42% declined.

Figure 2.1: Breeding farmland birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 2.1

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Figure 2.2: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for farmland birds in England, 1970 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 2.2

Download the data for Figure 2.2 in csv format

Notes for Figures 2.1 and a couple of.2:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 19 species of farmland birds.
• Figure 2.1 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 2.2 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 2.2 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Factors affecting farmland hen populations

The giant declines within the abundance of many farmland birds have plenty of identified and potential causes. For a big half, declines have been brought on by the adjustments in farming practices which have taken place for the reason that Nineteen Fifties and Sixties, such because the lack of blended farming, a transfer from spring to autumn sowing of arable crops, change in grassland administration (for instance, a swap from hay to silage manufacturing), elevated pesticide and fertiliser use, and the elimination of non-cropped options similar to hedgerows. The charge of those adjustments, which resulted within the lack of appropriate nesting and appropriate feeding habitats, and a discount in out there meals, was best through the late Nineteen Seventies and early Eighties, the interval throughout which many farmland hen populations declined most quickly.

Some farming practices proceed to have unfavourable impacts on hen populations, however most farmers can and do take constructive steps to preserve birds on their land. In specific, plenty of incentive schemes encourage improved environmental stewardship in farming, with some measures particularly designed to assist stabilise and get well farmland hen populations. These embrace the availability of over-wintered stubbles and planted wild hen crop covers to supply seed within the winter, uncropped margins on arable fields and sympathetic administration of hedgerows. There is rising proof that such motion can ship native recoveries in farmland hen populations and thus, if delivered at applicable scale, wider restoration. Changes in numbers skilled by some species could, to a lesser extent, be additional pushed by different pressures. For instance, there’s proof of an opposed impression from illness for some species, most notably greenfinch.

For extra details about the proof for this indicator, see the proof assertion Annex 1.03 Evidence Statement for C5a Farmland Birds.

Species breakdown

The farmland hen index is comprised of 19 species. The long-term decline of the farmland indicator for England has been pushed primarily by the decline of these species which are restricted to, or extremely depending on, farmland habitats (the ‘specialists’). Between 1970 and 2021, the farmland specialists index declined by 74%; farmland generalists declined, additionally by 4%. The smoothed development exhibits a big long-term decline of 74% for specialists and a (non-significant) 11% long-term decline for generalists (see determine 2.3).

Figure 2.3: Breeding farmland birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 2.3

Download the data for Figure 2.3 in csv format

Notes for Figure 2.3:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 19 species of farmland birds, of which 12 species are farmland specialists and seven species are farmland generalists.
• Figure 2.3 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line).

Farmland specialists

Changes in farming practices, such because the lack of blended farming methods, the transfer from spring to autumn sowing of arable crops, and elevated pesticide use, have been demonstrated to have had opposed impacts on farmland birds similar to skylark and gray partridge. Five farmland specialists (turtle dove, tree sparrow, gray partridge, corn bunting and starling) have declined by in extra of 80% relative to 1970 ranges. In distinction, 2 different farmland specialists (inventory dove and goldfinch) have greater than doubled over the identical interval, illustrating how responses to pressures varies between species.

Overall, 17% of the 12 specialist species within the farmland indicator elevated, 8% confirmed little change and 75% declined over the long-term interval. The indices for turtle dove, tree sparrow, gray partridge, starling, and corn bunting all present very robust declines of 99%, 96%, 92%, 88% and 87% respectively since 1970. Specialist farmland species which elevated had been goldfinch, by 179%, and inventory dove, by 133%, over this long-term interval.

The smoothed index exhibits that between 2015 and 2020 specialist farmland species declined considerably by 5% on common. Over this era, 6 of the 12 specialist species confirmed a declining development, particularly turtle dove, which has continued to say no sharply, by 44%, between 2015 and 2020. Yellowhammer confirmed a weak decline over each the lengthy and brief time period. Between 2015 and 2020, 33% of specialist species elevated, with goldfinch and inventory dove growing by 12% and 20% respectively over this short-term interval.

Figure 2.4: Breeding farmland specialist birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 2.5: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for farmland specialist birds in England, 1970 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 2.5

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Notes for Figures 2.4 and a couple of.5:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 12 species of farmland specialist birds.
• Figure 2.4 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 2.5 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 2.5 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Farmland generalists

There are 7 generalist farmland species included within the indicator they usually utilise a wider vary of habitats than the specialist farmland species. Since 1970 the generalist farmland smoothed index has fallen, not considerably, by 11%.

Generalist farmland species have fared higher than specialists over the long run since 1970; 29% of the 7 generalist species within the indicator elevated, 43% confirmed little change and 29% declined. The indices for woodpigeon and jackdaw populations have greater than doubled relative to 1970 ranges, whereas numbers of yellow wagtail and greenfinch have declined by 62% and 66% respectively.

The smoothed index exhibits that between 2015 and 2020 generalist farmland species declined considerably by 5% on common. Only one of many seven species declined over this era; greenfinch exhibiting a robust decline of 39% whereas its long-term development is a weak decline. Greenfinch numbers have been negatively impacted by the illness trichomonosis, which can even have affected the turtle dove, a farmland specialist, in recent years. Yellow wagtail and jackdaw are the one species to have elevated, by 11% and 10% respectively, over this era.

Figure 2.6: Breeding farmland generalist birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 2.6

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Figure 2.7: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for farmland generalist birds in England, 1970 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 2.7

Download the data for Figure 2.7 in csv format

Notes for Figures 2.6 and a couple of.7:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 7 species of farmland generalist birds.
• Figure 2.6 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 2.7 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 2.7 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

3. Breeding woodland hen populations in England

Trend description

Woodland bushes and the understorey present nesting for birds in addition to foraging alternatives and canopy from predators.

In 2021, the breeding woodland hen indicator for England was 34% decrease than in 1970 and the smoothed index exhibits a big decline of 33% between 1970 and 2020. The best decline occurred between the early Eighties and the early Nineties. Since 1996 the index has been comparatively steady though extra lately the smoothed index decreased considerably by 10% between 2015 and 2020.

Since 1970, 21% of woodland species elevated, 47% confirmed little change and 32% declined, nearly all of the latter present a robust decline.

Over the short-term interval between 2015 and 2020, 9% of species elevated, 44% confirmed little change and 47% declined. Five species confirmed a robust decline in the long run and within the brief time period. These are lesser noticed woodpecker, tree pipit, willow tit, noticed flycatcher and lesser redpoll, lowering by 43%, 40%, 25%, 24% and 16% respectively between 2015 and 2020. Numbers of goldcrest, redstart and chaffinch confirmed little change over the long run, however a robust decline within the brief time period.

Figure 3.1: Breeding woodland birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 3.1

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Figure 3.2: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for woodland birds in England, 1970 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 3.2

Download the data for Figure 3.2 in csv format

Notes for Figures 3.1 and three.2:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 34 species of woodland birds.
• Figure 3.1 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 3.2 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 3.2 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Factors affecting woodland birds

The declines in woodland birds have a number of identified and potential causes, similar to an absence of woodland administration together with the cessation of conventional practices similar to coppicing, and elevated deer searching stress, each of which end in a diminished range of woodland construction and, due to this fact, diminished availability of appropriate nesting and foraging habitats. Changes in farmland administration, such because the elimination of hedgerows, adversely impacted lots of the species within the indicator which have substantial populations exterior of woodland, for instance, in farmland and gardens. In addition, a number of declining woodland birds are long-distance migrants, and a decline within the extent or high quality of habitats used exterior of the UK within the non-breeding season could also be one issue affecting these species. Positive components embrace the growing space of woodland cowl and milder winters doubtlessly having a useful impression for some species.

For extra details about the proof for this indicator, see the proof assertion Annex 1.04 Evidence Statement for C5b Woodland Birds.

Species breakdown

The woodland hen index is comprised of traits for 34 species. The total development masks completely different underlying traits for specialist species, that are extremely depending on woodland habitats; and generalist species, that are present in a variety of habitats, together with woodland.

The long-term decline of the woodland hen indicator in England has been largely pushed by the decline of specialist woodland birds. In 2021, the index for woodland specialists was 48% decrease than in 1970 whereas the index for woodland generalists was only one% decrease. The smoothed development (between 1970 and 2020) exhibits a big decline of 46% for specialists and a non-significant 3% decline for woodland generalists (determine 3.3).

Figure 3.3: Breeding woodland birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 3.3

Download the data for Figure 3.3 in csv format

Notes for Figure 3.3:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 34 species of farmland birds, of which 22 species are woodland specialists and 12 species are woodland generalists.
• Figure 3.3 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line).

Woodland specialists

For 9 species of the woodland specialists their numbers have greater than halved since 1970, with 5 species (lesser noticed woodpecker, lesser redpoll, willow tit, noticed flycatcher and tree pipit) having declined by 90% or extra. In distinction, populations of 5 woodland specialists (blackcap, chiffchaff, nice noticed woodpecker, nuthatch and sparrowhawk) have greater than doubled since 1970. However, numbers for the sparrowhawk confirmed a robust decline since 2015.

The smoothed index for specialists exhibits a big 13% decline between 2015 and 2020. However, species inside it present markedly completely different traits over this 5-year interval. Lesser noticed woodpecker, wooden warbler and tree pipit have all decreased by 40% or extra, whereas blackcap and nuthatch present will increase of 21% and 16% respectively.

Overall, 32% of the 22 specialist species within the woodland indicator elevated, 27% confirmed little change and 41% declined over the long-term interval.

In the brief time period, 9% of all specialist woodland species elevated, 32% confirmed little change and 59% declined, with greater than half of those species exhibiting a robust decline.

Figure 3.4: Breeding specialist woodland birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 3.5: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for woodland specialist birds in England, 1970 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 3.5

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Notes for Figures 3.4 and three.5:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 22 species of woodland specialist birds.
• Figure 3.4 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 3.5 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 3.5 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Woodland generalists

The majority of generalist woodland species, a lot of which have tailored to utilizing gardens and wooded areas in farmland, have proven little or no change over the long run with the smoothed development exhibiting a non-significant decline of three% between 1970 and 2020. In the brief time period, between 2015 and 2020, the woodland generalist smoothed index declined considerably by 4%.

The majority of generalist species confirmed little change, while track thrush and bullfinch confirmed declines of 52% and 49% respectively. In distinction, populations of nice tit, long-tailed tit, robin and wren have elevated by greater than 50% since 1970.

The smoothed index exhibits a big 4% lower between 2015 and 2020 for generalist woodland species. One of the 12 species decreased strongly over this short-term interval: chaffinch by 30%. Tawny owl elevated by 7% within the brief time period.

Figure 3.6: Breeding generalist woodland birds in England, 1970 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 3.6

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Figure 3.7: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for woodland generalist birds in England, 1970 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 3.7

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Notes for Figures 3.6 and three.7:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 12 species of woodland generalist birds.
• Figure 3.6 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 3.7 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 3.7 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

4. Breeding water and wetland hen populations in England

Trend description

Water and wetlands embrace rivers, lakes, ponds, reedbeds, grazing marshes, different moist grasslands, and lowland raised bogs, all offering vital habitats for birds. Species included within the wetland indicator are these outlined as having a constructive affiliation with waterways or wetlands, however in apply, these overlap markedly with these categorised as ‘lowland wetland’ species and likewise embrace some upland birds and people additionally related to farmland, for instance reed bunting and yellow wagtail.

Produced largely utilizing the inhabitants traits from surveys in wetland habitats, the water and wetland hen index has remained pretty steady for a lot of the interval since knowledge assortment began in 1975. In 2021 the water and wetland hen index was 3% decrease than the 1975 baseline and the smoothed development exhibits a non-significant decline of 1% between 1975 and 2020. Numbers rose barely within the early 2000s then fell; the smoothed index confirmed a non-significant 5% lower between 2015 and 2020.

Of the 25 species for which a long-term development may be calculated, 28% of species elevated, 44% confirmed little change and 28% declined, with nearly all of species exhibiting a weak change reasonably than a robust change. For little egret, knowledge can solely be included from 2004 and due to this fact a long-term development couldn’t be calculated (for extra info on the time sequence used for various species long-term traits, see data sets provided alongside this publication).

Over the short-term period between 2015 and 2020, 19% of species increased, 23% showed little change and 58% declined.

Figure 4.1: Breeding water and wetland birds in England, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 4.2: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for water and wetland birds in England, 1975 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 4.2

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Notes for Figures 4.1 and 4.2:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 26 species of water and wetland birds.
• Figure 4.1 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 4.2 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 4.2 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Factors affecting water and wetland hen populations

The historic declines in breeding waders resulted from land administration adjustments similar to drainage, the intensification of grassland administration and the conversion of coastal and floodplain grazing marshes to arable land. Where populations persist in small fragments of high-quality habitat, their nests and younger may be weak to predation, which is at the moment considered limiting the restoration of a number of species of breeding wader. However, a spread of species, notably these related to standing water our bodies, have benefitted from habitat creation, notably from the restoration of post-extraction gravel pits. Additionally, there was a internet constructive impression from improved survival charges because of the development in the direction of milder winters.

For extra details about the proof for this indicator, see the proof assertion Annex 1.05 Evidence Statement for C5c Wetland Birds.

Species breakdown

The 26 species of hen included within the water and wetland hen index may be cut up into 4 classes for producing sub-habitat indicators. Although the index for all wetland and waterways species exhibits a comparatively steady development, this masks underlying and marked variations between sub-habitat indicators (determine 4.3). When decoding these traits, it needs to be borne in thoughts that every sub-habitat development is derived from comparatively few species’ traits.

Figure 4.3 : Breeding water and wetland birds in England, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 4.3

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Notes for Figure 4.3:

• Figure 4.3 exhibits the unsmoothed traits (dashed line) and the smoothed traits (strong line) for the 4 sub-habitat indicators of breeding water and wetland birds.

Birds of gradual flowing and standing water

Birds of gradual flowing and standing water present probably the most constructive development, doubtlessly benefitting most from wetland creation. The index in 2021 was 27% increased than in 1975 and the smoothed index elevated non-significantly by 26% since 1975 (Figure 4.4). However, the smoothed indicator exhibits a big 12% decline between 2015 and 2020. The long-term improve was pushed by 2 duck species, (mallard and tufted duck); mallard doubling in numbers and tufted duck growing by 73%. Great crested grebe confirmed a weak decline. Numbers for moorhen, little grebe and coot present little change since 1975.

Overall, 2 of the 6 species confirmed a weak improve in the long run, 3 confirmed little change and one confirmed a weak lower.

In the brief time period, all 6 species confirmed declines, with the bulk exhibiting a weak decline reasonably than a robust decline. Numbers of coot and tufted duck, each confirmed robust declines within the brief time period, in distinction to the long-term development for numbers of tufted duck growing strongly by 73%.

Figure 4.4: Breeding birds of gradual flowing and standing water in England, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 4.5: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for birds of gradual flowing and standing water in England, 1975 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 4.5

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Notes for Figures 4.4 and 4.5:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for six species for birds of gradual flowing and standing water.
• Figure 4.4 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 4.5 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 4.5 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Birds of quick flowing water

The index for birds of quick flowing water was 23% decrease in 2021 than in 1975 and the smoothed index exhibits a big 20% decline between 1975 and 2020. Numbers dipped throughout 2009 to 2014, though not as little as within the early Eighties. In probably the most recent years and between 2015 and 2020 it decreased, considerably by 15% (Figure 4.6).

Numbers of goosander have elevated by 70% since 1981 (when knowledge for this species turned out there). However, numbers of frequent sandpiper have declined by 51% whereas dipper and gray wagtail present little change in comparison with their 1975 baseline ranges.

One (gray wagtail) of the 4 species confirmed little change within the brief time period (2015 to 2020), whereas the remaining 3 species all declined strongly: frequent sandpiper, goosander and dipper declined by 28%, 18% and 16% respectively.

Figure 4.6: Breeding birds of quick flowing water in England, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 4.7: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for birds of quick flowing water in England, 1975 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 4.7

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Notes for Figures 4.6 and 4.7:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 4 species for birds of quick flowing water.
• Figure 4.6 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 4.7 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 4.7 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Birds of reedbeds

The index for birds of reedbeds has fallen, then elevated, over the long-term interval, and in 2021 was 14% increased than in 1975 (Figure 4.8). The smoothed index, which has elevated in the long run (not considerably) by 17% peaked in 2009 and confirmed a non-significant improve of two% between 2015 and 2020.

In the long run, reed bunting and sedge warbler confirmed declines of 55% and 48% respectively, contrasting with an 8-fold improve in Cetti’s warbler since 1988 (when the species exceeded the 300 pair threshold for inclusion within the indicator, following its colonisation of the UK in 1972). Numbers of reed warbler confirmed little change.

Over the short-term, numbers of sedge warbler and reed bunting have declined, falling by 7% and 6% respectively between 2015 and 2020. Cetti’s warbler has continued to extend strongly, by 22% between 2015 and 2020, and reed warbler has proven little change.

Figure 4.8: Breeding birds of reedbeds in England, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 4.9: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for birds of reedbeds in England, 1975 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 4.9

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Notes for Figures 4.8 and 4.9:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 4 species for birds of reedbeds.
• Figure 4.8 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 4.9 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 4.9 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Birds of moist grassland

The unsmoothed index for birds of moist grassland was 29% increased in 2021 in comparison with 1975 and the smoothed index exhibits a non-significant decline of 27% between 1975 and 2020 (Figure 4.10). The majority of the decline occurred between the mid-Eighties and the mid-Nineties. More lately the indicator has levelled off; the smoothed indicator exhibits a non-significant 5% improve between 2015 and 2020.

Over the long run, though some moist grassland species (mute swan and teal) elevated, 3 species declined, and a couple of species confirmed little modified. Of the three species which declined, one species, the yellow wagtail, has declined strongly by 95% in comparison with their 1975 baseline. Snipe and redshank have additionally decreased, by 67% and 60% respectively, since 1975.

Over the brief time period, each lapwing and redshank present declines, of 23% and 14% respectively between 2015 and 2020. Snipe traits have reversed, exhibiting a weak short-term improve of 13% in distinction to its long-term decline. Little egret, which was included for the primary time in 2006 (when the inhabitants first exceeded the 300 pair decrease threshold for inclusion) and due to this fact not assessed over the long run, confirmed a robust improve of 30% since 2015.

Figure 4.10: Breeding birds of moist grassland in England, 1975 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 4.11: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for birds of moist grassland in England, 1975 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 4.11

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Notes for Figures 4.10 and 4.11:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 8 species for birds of moist grassland.
• Figure 4.10 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 4.11 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 4.11 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

5. Breeding seabird populations in England

In the 2020 publication the breeding seabird index was up to date with knowledge as much as and together with 2019. In addition to the annual monitoring scheme SMP, JNCC is working, in affiliation with different companions, on the completion of the subsequent breeding seabird census, Seabirds Count (2015 to 2021) throughout Britain and Ireland. Regular counts at a pattern of colonies present robust trends, however complete inhabitants censuses are additionally required so as to add context and assist to determine why adjustments is perhaps occurring, in addition to to allow the calculation of between-census traits for these seabird species not monitored by the annual pattern surveying. Additionally, conducting periodic censuses permits the accuracy of SMP annual monitoring traits to be examined and the chance to know how breeding seabird populations is perhaps altering spatially. This is very vital when contemplating inland and concrete breeding species, that are hardly ever monitored yearly. The seabird figures are introduced with unsmoothed confidence intervals. Smoothed traits and assessments of change primarily based on smoothed traits might be calculated subsequently.

The English coast consists of all kinds of habitats similar to sea cliffs, sand dunes, shingle ridges and intertidal areas. The marine habitats used for foraging by this group of birds embrace coastal lagoons and shallow coastal waters in addition to deeper offshore waters all through the UK. Although inland populations are largely excluded, some species may also exploit terrestrial meals sources.

In 2019, the breeding seabird index in England was 11% increased than in 1986. The indicator has elevated to the present stage between 1986 and about 1992 since when it’s been steady with fluctuations. In the brief time period, the index elevated by 4% between 2013 and 2018.

Between 1986 and 2018, 18% of the seabird species elevated, 45% confirmed little change and 36% declined, nearly all of the latter present a weak decline. There are 11 species of hen included within the England seabird indicator. This consists of gannet, which has proven a quickly growing development on the solely English colony at Bempton Cliffs, Yorkshire, which has had a marked constructive impact on the indicator. A breakdown by feeding behaviour (Figure 5.3) exhibits a 22% decline in seabirds that forage on the floor of the ocean (floor piscivores) in distinction with a 168% improve in those who forage by diving (subsurface piscivores). Numbers of herring gull, the European shag, little tern and black-legged kittiwake have all declined by 75%, 53%, 44% and 41% respectively in the long run. In distinction, numbers of frequent guillemot and gannet present a robust improve; frequent guillemot numbers have greater than doubled and gannet numbers elevated 20-fold between 1986 and 2018.

Over the short-term interval between 2013 and 2018, 55% of the species elevated, 9% confirmed little change and 36% declined. Sandwich tern, Arctic tern, frequent tern and gannet all present robust will increase between 2013 and 2018. Numbers of little tern, European shag, and herring gull proceed to say no strongly, falling greater than 15% between 2013 and 2018.

Figure 5.1: Breeding seabirds in England, 1986 to 2019

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 5.2: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for seabirds in England, 1986 to 2018

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 5.2

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Notes for Figures 5.1 and 5.2:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 11 species of seabird.
• Figure 5.1 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart. No smoothed development is out there for seabirds, however this might be in future publications.
• Figure 5.2 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 5.2 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Species breakdown

Figure 5.3: Surface and subsurface feeding seabirds in England, 1986 to 2019

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 5.3

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Notes for Figure 5.3:

• The subsurface feeders index consists of particular person measures for 4 species of seabirds; the floor feeders index consists of particular person measures for five species of seabirds.
• Figure 5.3 exhibits the unsmoothed traits for all seabirds, subsurface seabirds and floor feeders (dashed strains).

Factors affecting seabird populations

This measure is focussed on the marine surroundings. Accordingly, for plenty of species (for instance, herring gull, nice cormorant), the indicator makes use of knowledge for coastal populations (colonies inside 5 km of the shoreline) solely reasonably than knowledge from all breeding areas of those species. This focusses the indicator on adjustments on the coast and in marine waters however means adjustments in inland populations are usually not taken under consideration. Work is at the moment underway to enhance survey protection of inland colonies so {that a} development primarily based on all breeding areas may be included within the ‘all species indicator’.

The seabird index in England continues to indicate a unique sample to the UK seabird index printed in Wild hen populations within the UK, 1970 to 2021. One cause for this distinction is species composition. Some species breed solely in Scotland whereas others are extra widespread however have the majority of their populations in northern components of the British Isles, and there could also be inadequate knowledge to generate an England-only development. Furthermore, it was additionally potential to generate an England development for gannet primarily based on dependable knowledge from a single giant colony, however there are inadequate knowledge consultant of the UK inhabitants to supply a dependable UK development for this species.

For extra details about the proof for this indicator, see the proof assertion Annex 1.06 Evidence Statement for C5d Seabirds.

6. Wintering waterbird populations in England

Chapter 6 has not been up to date as knowledge assortment through the winter season of 2020/2021 was affected by COVID-19 restrictions.

Trend description

The time period waterbird refers to birds that inhabit or rely upon water and wetland habitats; this chapter is about waterbirds that over-winter in England, a few of which additionally breed in England. Not all the wintering waterbirds on this chapter are included within the all-breeding birds index, solely these which additionally breed in England and for which breeding traits can be found. Wintering populations sometimes originate largely from breeding populations exterior the UK and therefore they symbolize utterly completely different populations. In the related data sets published alongside this update, those species that overlap are included under both, using the breeding population trend for the all-species indicator and the wintering population trend for the Wintering Waterbird Indicator.

In the winter of 2019/2020, the wintering waterbird index was 75% higher than in the winter of 1975/1976. The index peaked in the late 1990s, and has declined since, with the smoothed index falling by 7% between the winters of 2013/2014 and 2018/2019, a short-term change considered enough to be significant (long- and short-term).

Since 1975/1976, 46% of wintering waterbird species increased, 37% showed little change and 17% declined, most of these showing a weak decline.

Over the short-term period between the winters of 2013/2014 and 2018/2019, 17% of species increased, 41% showed little change and 41% declined.

Figure 6.1: Wintering waterbirds in England, 1975/1976 to 2019/2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust (WWT), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 6.2: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for wintering waterbirds in England, 1975/1976 to 2018/2019

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust (WWT), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 6.2

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Notes for Figures 6.1 and 6.2:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 41 species of wintering waterbird of which 22 are wildfowl species and 15 are wader species.
• Figure 6.1 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and smoothed development (strong line). Data from wintering waterbirds monitoring schemes are primarily based largely on full counts at colonies or at wetland and coastal websites of markedly various dimension. This implies that bootstrapping strategies can’t be utilized reliably and therefore traits for these teams are at the moment introduced with out confidence intervals.
• The variety of species in every sub indicator don’t sum to the quantity within the all-species indicator as a result of 4 species are included in all wintering waterbirds however are neither wildfowl nor wader. These are 2 grebes (little and great-crested), one rail species (coot) and cormorant. These are in 3 completely different taxonomic teams, none giant sufficient to warrant a separate indicator.
• Figure 6.2 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 6.2 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Factors affecting wintering wetland hen populations

Breeding wintering wetland birds are affected by a spread of things together with situations within the excessive latitude nations the place they breed, with breeding productiveness growing for species together with black-tailed godwit however lowering for others similar to Greenland white-fronted geese. There is nice proof of a robust local weather change impression on the indicator in recent years, with milder winters resulting in the wintering ranges of some species, similar to ringed plovers, more and more shifting away from the UK. In addition, native adjustments, similar to wetland creation and adjustments in agricultural administration, have had an impression on waterbird populations throughout the UK.

For extra details about the proof for this indicator, see the proof assertion Annex 1.07 Evidence Statement for C5e Wintering Waterbirds.

Species breakdown

There are 41 species, races and populations of hen included within the wintering waterbird indicator. These may be cut up into subcategories of wildfowl (geese, geese and swans) and waders (sandpipers, plovers and their shut kinfolk) which show barely completely different traits. Overall, the smoothed wildfowl index has elevated significantly by 96% and the wader index has elevated by 47% between 1975/1976 and 2018/2019. However, each peaked within the late Nineties and have declined subsequently between 2013/2014 and 2018/2019, each the smoothed indices for waders and wildfowl declined by 6% and 9% respectively, sufficient of a change to be thought-about vital.

Wildfowl

Between the winters of 1975/1976 and 2018/2019, half of the wildfowl species elevated, 27% confirmed little change and 23% declined. Notable robust will increase included the British/Irish greylag goose, whooper swan and gadwall; wintering numbers of which elevated by almost 40-fold, 23-fold and 16-fold respectively in the long run. Numbers of wintering scaup and Bewick’s swan have declined most strongly by 83% and 71% respectively since 1975/1976. There had been additionally long-term declines for: European white-fronted goose by 59% and pochard and eider each declined by 54%.

Between the winters of 2013/2014 and 2018/2019, 23% of species within the wildfowl indicator elevated, 32% confirmed little change and 45% declined. Notable recent declines within the wildfowl indicator had been for Bewick’s swan declining strongly by 60% and red-breasted merganser and eider, every declining by 32% over this short-term interval. The indices for whooper swan and shoveler confirmed robust recent will increase of twenty-two% and 17% respectively between the winters of 2013/2014 and 2018/2019.

Waders

Between the winters of 1975/1976 and 2018/2019, 33% of species within the wader index elevated, 53% confirmed little change and 13% declined. Wintering numbers of avocet and black-tailed godwit elevated 8- and 7-fold respectively in the long run. In distinction, numbers of dunlin and ringed plover decreased by 54% and 53% respectively since 1975/1976.

Between the winters of 2013/2014 and 2018/2019, 7% of wader species elevated, 53% confirmed little change and 40% declined. Wintering numbers of bar-tailed godwit and curlew declined by 21% and 19% respectively however the index for avocet elevated barely by 8%.

7. Upland hen populations in England

Experimental statistics are outlined by the Government Statistical Service (2019) as a subset of newly developed or progressive official statistics which are present process analysis. Experimental statistics are developed below the steerage of the Head of Profession for Statistics. They are printed to contain customers and stakeholders at an early stage in assessing their suitability and high quality. Feedback gathered will inform whether or not the upland hen indicator will turn into official statistics.

The upland hen indicator is being printed for the very first time as an experimental statistic. The staff would welcome suggestions on how helpful this indicator is and on how consultant the info is to be used as an upland hen indicator by way of [email protected]. As the Wild Birds publication gathers habitat knowledge from farmland, woodland, wetland and seabird; an upland hen indicator might complement the suite of untamed hen indicators see the latest supporting material section for the Upland Report on BTO’s ‘Bird Indicators’ web page.

Trend description

The upland areas in England are comprised primarily of enormous areas in northern England in addition to pockets within the southwest. Largely open and infrequently grazed with livestock, these areas present the open habitats for waders and specialist moorland birds to breed or forage.

Due to its heavy reliance on the Breeding Bird Survey launched in 1994, in addition to related nationwide single species surveys, this indicator covers the interval 1994 to 2021.

In 2021, the England upland hen index was 9% decrease than in 1994. The long-term development since 1994 exhibits a big 11% decline within the smoothed index and in 2020, the index was 7% decrease than in 2015.

Since 1994, 18% of the 28 upland hen species have elevated, half of the species confirmed little change and 32% declined.

Between 2015 and 2020, 20% of the 25 upland hen species elevated, 24% confirmed little change and 56% declined. Short-term traits couldn’t be calculated for 3 of the upland specialist hen species.

Figure 7.1: Upland birds in England, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Figure 7.2: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for upland birds in England, 1994 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 7.2

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Notes for Figures 7.1 and seven.2:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 28 species of upland birds.
• Figure 7.1 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 7.2 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 7.2 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Factors affecting upland birds

Upland birds are weak to plenty of pressures contributing to the sample of total decline, notably among the many upland specialists. UK uplands have a protracted historical past of intensive sheep grazing, recreation administration and business afforestation. Reviews of causes of change have recognized adjustments in grazing stress, forest enlargement, particularly by non-native conifers, site-based predator management and local weather change results similar to droughts, as a few of the main pressures for open-nesting moorland species whereas upland passerines are affected by reductions in vegetation construction and composition. Raptors have benefitted from diminished persecution though this nonetheless stays a risk. The total stability in generalist species could replicate a stability between long run unfavourable impacts of land use adjustments and advantages of local weather change as extra adaptable species are in a position to colonise new areas and improve in abundance.

Species breakdown

The 28 species of hen included within the ‘all upland bird index’ may be cut up into 3 classes for producing sub-indicators. The indicator for Upland Specialist birds is comprised of the inhabitants traits for 12 species attribute of and located solely in upland, sometimes open moorland habitats. The indicator for Upland Riparian species is comprised of the inhabitants traits for 4 species strongly related to upland rivers and streams. The indicator for Upland Generalist birds is comprised of the inhabitants traits for 12 species (for instance, Wren, Skylark, Carrion Crow) that are widespread and infrequently frequent in uplands but additionally present in different habitats similar to lowland farms or woodland. For these species, the inhabitants traits used are derived solely from surveys in upland habitat.

The long-term decline of the upland indicator for England has been pushed primarily by the decline of these species which are restricted to, or extremely depending on, upland habitats (the ‘specialists’) and species strongly related to upland rivers and streams (riparian birds). Between 1994 and 2021, the upland specialists index declined by 18% and the upland riparian index declined by 23%. Whereas the upland generalists elevated by 7% in the long run. The smoothed development exhibits a decline of 23% for specialists and vital 17% decline for riparian birds. For upland generalists the smoothed development is a non-significant 6% improve (see determine 7.3).

Figure 7.3: Sub-indicators for upland birds in England, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

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Notes about Figure 7.3:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 28 species of upland hen of which 12 species are upland specialist birds, 12 species are upland generalist birds and 4 species are upland riparian birds.
• Figure 7.3 exhibits the unsmoothed for all upland birds, upland riparian birds, upland specialist birds and upland generalist birds (dashed strains).

Upland specialist birds

In 2021, the unsmoothed upland specialist birds index was 18% decrease than in 1994 and the development within the smoothed index between 1994 and 2020 is of a big decline of 23%. Between 2015 and 2020 the smoothed index was 5% decrease.

Since 1994, 8% of the 12 upland specialist birds elevated, half of the species confirmed little change and 42% declined. Numbers of twite and whinchat declined strongly by 74% and 55% respectively.

Between 2015 and 2020, 22% of the 9 upland specialist birds elevated, 22% confirmed little change and 56% declined. Numbers of ring ouzel elevated strongly by 39% within the brief time period. Whereas each whinchat and golden plover declined strongly by 26% and 25% respectively. Short-term traits couldn’t be calculated for 3 of the upland specialist hen species.

Figure 7.4: Upland specialist birds in England, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 7.4

Download the data for Figure 7.4 in csv format

Figure 7.5: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for upland specialist birds in England, 1994 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 7.5

Download the data for Figure 7.5 in csv format

Notes for Figures 7.4 and seven.5:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 12 species of upland specialist birds.
• Figure 7.4 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 7.5 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 7.5 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Upland generalist birds

In 2021, the unsmoothed upland generalist hen index was 7% increased than in 1994 however didn’t present an total vital change within the smoothed development. Between 2015 and 2020 the smoothed index declined by 6%.

Since 1994, 33% of the 12 upland generalist hen species elevated, 42% confirmed little change and 25% declined. Numbers of stonechat and pink kite elevated 7- and 3-fold respectively since 1994.

Between 2015 and 2020, 25% of the 12 upland generalist hen species elevated, 25% confirmed little change and the remaining 50% declined. Stonechat numbers continued to extend quickly, by 93% in simply this brief interval. In distinction, numbers of peregrine, pied wagtail and carrion crow declined by 63%, 20% and 15% respectively between 2015 and 2020.

Figure 7.6: Upland generalist birds in England, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 7.6

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Figure 7.7: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for upland generalist birds in England, 1994 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 7.7

Download the data for Figure 7.7 in csv format

Notes for Figures 7.6 and seven.7:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 12 species of upland generalist birds.
• Figure 7.6 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 7.7 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 7.7 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Upland riparian birds

In 2021, the unsmoothed upland riparian birds index was 23% decrease than in 1994 and the long-term sample is of a big decline of 17%. Between 2015 and 2020 the smoothed index declined by 15%.

Since 1994, 3 of the 4 upland riparian species confirmed little change with the remaining species, frequent sandpiper, exhibiting a decline of 42%.

Between 2015 and 2020, one of many upland riparian species, gray wagtail, confirmed little change whereas the remaining 3 species declined. Numbers of frequent sandpiper, goosander and dipper all declined strongly by 28%, 18% and 16% respectively within the brief time period.

Figure 7.8: Upland riparian birds in England, 1994 to 2021

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 7.8

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Figure 7.9: Long-term and short-term adjustments in particular person species traits for upland riparian birds in England, 1994 to 2020

Source: British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

View the data for Figure 7.9

Download the data for Figure 7.9 in csv format

Notes for Figures 7.8 and seven.9:

• This indicator consists of particular person measures for 4 species of upland riparian birds.
• Figure 7.8 exhibits the unsmoothed development (dashed line) and the smoothed development (strong line) along with its 95% confidence interval (a measure of uncertainty) represented by the shaded space on the chart.
• Figure 7.9 exhibits the proportion of species throughout the indicator which have proven a statistically vital improve (robust or weak improve), a statistically vital lower (robust or weak decline) or no statistically vital change (little change or no change) over the long-term and short-term evaluation durations.
• Figure 7.9 is introduced as a stacked bar chart and the legend is introduced in the identical order because the stacks within the bar chart.

Main notes: methodological element, limitations of the indications and additional info

1. The census sources present a sign of the common annual charge of change between censuses for some species, and that is assumed to use to every 12 months between censuses.

2. More details about particular person species traits, together with images and background to the adjustments in inhabitants can be found by way of the BTO website. Some regional evaluation can also be printed as a part of the Breeding Bird Survey, together with for different constituent nations of the UK. More details about the State of UK birds may be accessed by way of the RSPB web site. Details on the monitoring of scarce and uncommon breeding birds, together with annual reviews, may be discovered on the web site of the Rare Breeding Birds Panel.

3. More info on how a smoothed development was produced when a 12 months of knowledge is lacking is within the BTO Research Report ‘Production of smoothed population trends when a year of data is missing’ on BTO’s ‘Bird Indicators’ web page.

4. For extra info on the Upland Indicator, see BTO Research Report ‘Upland Indicator Report’ on BTO’s ‘Bird Indicators’ web page.

5. The indices cowl birds which are native to England, excluding uncommon (lower than 300 breeding pairs) and launched species. The indices painting the annual adjustments in abundance. Within the indices, every species is given equal weighting, and the general index is the geometric imply of the person species indices. Individual species populations throughout the index could also be growing or lowering, regardless of the general index traits. Species indices are derived by modelling rely knowledge and estimates are revised when new knowledge or improved methodologies are developed and utilized retrospectively to earlier years.

6. The indices are thought-about to present dependable medium to long-term traits, however robust reliance shouldn’t be connected to brief time period adjustments from 12 months to 12 months.

7. The particular person species included inside every indicator are given within the related knowledge units printed alongside this update for an inventory of birds in every group.

8. Smoothing is a typical process within the technology and reporting of bird population trends. The smoothing methodology entails the applying of a skinny plate smoothing spline to take away the short-term peaks and troughs attributable to climate results and any between 12 months sampling error. Research by the BTO and RSPB additional developed this process to allow the manufacturing of an indicator primarily based on smoothed particular person species’ indices.

9. Bootstrapping, a typical statistical method, is used to calculate 95% confidence intervals within the indicators and in change over any specified interval. The width of the boldness interval for a given indicator is influenced by the variety of species in that indicator and the precision of the person species traits that make up that indicator. The precision of traits varies between species; that is true even for species for which traits come from the identical supply, because of the variation in pattern dimension. Therefore, the scale of confidence intervals varies amongst habitat indicators.

10. For the farmland hen index, it needs to be famous that though 20 species had been initially chosen for the index, a dependable annual index just isn’t out there for barn owl, in order that species is excluded.

11. Details of agri-environmental schemes designed to enhance environmental administration in farming may be discovered by way of the next internet hyperlink: